Even with perfect information, which is rare even for the most well-known components of ecology for the most well-known species, we don't know for sure what will happen. W/ stochastic environmental conditions and species interactions, potential outcomes vary enormously We wanted to know what the biggest risks were. What's the worst-case? Is the network of species likely to be stable? For what species might we be least confident of long term success? Are there interactions or orders that would reduce long-term success?

How we unravelled complex risk... a thread 🧵 Australia has tragically lost much of its mammal fauna from vast swathes of the burnt brown land. Over 10% of mammal fauna across the continent has disappeared into extinction, and many more remain only on islands: pnas.org/content/112/15…