Let me explain the situation more:

-I've seen stats saying the average ranch has a -1.5% return on assets if you don't factor land appreciation
-age of average rancher is over 58 years old
-89% of ranches are less than 100 cows with average herd size of that group being 22

1/7

https://twitter.com/untappedgrowth/status/1908481499902472345

-land has monetized as a store of value & ESPECIALLY post 2020 it is impossible to pay for the land out of its production
-the young generation has been left behind & can't afford to get started in anything capital intensive (even if you can get the margins positive)

2/7

Cattle markets are hot, where do I think they are going?

I for one disagree with a lot of my neighbors & this is why
🧵
1/16

First, you must understand beef operations in the US are split into 3 general types:

-cow calf: the mama herds that raise the calves from birth to weaning
-stocker: take weaned calves intended for slaughter & grow them up
-finisher: take grown animals & fatten for slaughter
2/16

I'm realizing there are a lot of people out there that care about the problems facing American food security & agriculture but few who actually can see all the facets of the problems 🧵

In somewhat chronological order that I have encountered them- 1) Inflation ran away from my generation. Wages stagnated while the price of everything went up, land monetized as a store of value & it outcompetes its productive use, the older generation largely extracts the value from both those dynamics leaving us unable to get started

Ok, scary tweet thread time on our national food security 🧵

6% of ranches in the US control 31% of the land & produce 75% of the beef, even while 89% of the ranches in the US are less than 100 cows & are subsidized hobby farms with the age of average rancher being ~58
1/

https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1803793422169583848

Most of those old farmers are aging out with no one to take their place. Inflation has caused the prices of assets to run away from the younger generation & no one can afford to buy in. Add to this increasing input prices & ranchers are selling out & giving up in mass
2/

How do you define the scope of what your "citadel" should be?

What are your threat models? What things are you trying to secure for yourself?

At what size do the network effects kick in when you overlay these two? The answer likely will surprise a lot of you

https://twitter.com/untappedgrowth/status/1631349489247084553

examples-

Energy security:

Minimum block size for a true microgrid (in the style I want) is 8-12 homes.

25-50 homes is much better as it enables downtime, maintenance cycles on each unit, & redundancy.