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Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
Jens von Bergmann
@vb_jens
Data, analysis, visualization, #CensusMapper, transportation cyclist. Transitioning to bsky: @jensvb.bsky.social
Jan 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Your regular reminder that Vancouver still has a long way to go to achieve their sewer separation goal. And because Vancouver likes to tack the costs onto new development, aka "growth pays for legacy costs", a lot of RS is still not separated. map of combined and separated sewer infrastructure in the ci Which makes the staff argument to limit the missing middle initiative to 1FSR because of sewer capacity all the more curious. Those sewers will have to be upgraded either way.
Jan 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is wild. Canadian cities tend to be better, but sometimes still have exclusionary enclaves cut out, e.g. Montréal.
But “give me all census tracts in this city” is common request in Canada too. And this request is more complex than many realize. Montreal city boundary In Canada census tracts don’t necessarily respect municipal boundaries. The {cancensus} 📦 still allows such requests, if a census tract passes through multiple cities it gets assigned based on which city has the highest share of population in the tract. mountainmath.github.io/cancensus/
Oct 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Data from today's census release is now imported into #CensusMapper and available for mapping as well as for download via the API or the {cancensus} package. Threading some quick maps. First up, ethnic diversity index. censusmapper.ca/maps/3601 Next, religion. Or better "No religion". This concept is only asked every other census. The share of Canadians saying they have no religion increased from 24% in 2011 to 34.6% of respondents in 2021. censusmapper.ca/maps/3602?b=1
Aug 8, 2022 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
Demand at what price though? What's the purpose of zoning and when is it "overly restrictive"? Those are political questions. Let me count the ways, and give some examples for Vancouver. First a comment about this being political. When do we know if we have enough housing? That depends on your perspective, as @LausterNa and I have outlined in an Appendix to the BC Expert Panel Report on Housing. engage.gov.bc.ca/app/uploads/si…
Oct 14, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
With stats on inheritance (and downpayment assistance) making the rounds it's a good idea to check what the 2019 SFS has to say on this. It's looking at economic family units, so families and unattached individuals. Here is what share of family units have received an inheritance. How much are they inheriting on average? It ranges from a little under $100k for younger age groups to around $150k for older ones. (In 2016 dollars.) Quite a bit of variation in the data, resulting in sizeable uncertainties.
Aug 12, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Haven't posted the BC COVID graph for a while. Today's count was high at 530 plus 6 back-dated case. Adjusting for the weekly pattern drops it to 499, a bit above expectation with trend line at 488. In case it needs to be said explicitly, we are in a sustained exponential growth scenario with faster growth than we have seen at any other point in this pandemic in BC as can easily be read off this log plot.
Jun 4, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
New variant of concern data for BC is out today. Let's take a look. Here is how the screened VOC match up against theory. We see a kink/change in growth rate advantage after the March 30 measures. And then a deviation from predicted trajectory for past three weeks. What's going on there? Hard to say for sure, but this is what we would expect to see if B.1.617.2 (the "delta" variant) took hold in BC. It is indistinguishable from wild type in our N501Y screening, the function of screening in detecting new variants is flipped.
Jun 2, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
BC's COVID trends look great, cases are continuing their strong decline. It's too early to say what effect the Step 1 reopening will have on this, so far things are looking good. Image The strong decline is seen across all health regions, most clustering around 5 cases per 100k pop a day with Vancouver Island well below that. Image
Apr 22, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Quick mid-week update, cases decline still looking good in BC. The effect seems too strong for the change in measures we had, and I get lots of questions if there are problems with testing. My answer: I don't think so, this trend is real. I see this as a combination of change in measures, and voluntary change in behaviour when people got shell-shocked by high case counts, VOC and rising hospitalizations. Plus initial rise might have partially been boosted by Whistler event, explaining steep VCH bump/decline.
Apr 20, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
It looks like @StatCan_eng has removed the requirement to "order" PUMF data, it can now be downloaded without filling in the form and going through EFT. (H/T @kstewartVAN) This is great! It makes it easier to reproduce/adapt analysis based on PUMF and simplifies collaboration. The bad news is that the file formats are still horrendous and machine readable metadata is lacking. The "CSV" option comes down as an Excel file. 😰 And metadata locked up in PDFs. PUMF data is such a valuable resource, it should not be this way.
Apr 20, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In BC we got our three days of weekend COVID data, and there were no surprises. The case growth has been stopped and it shows a tentatively declining trend. That is good, although hospitalizations will likely continue to climb because they lag cases and growing VOC share. Image Speaking of VOCs, I have added a trajectory for wild type covid (in blue), although BC is still not releasing useful VOC data (yes, that's utterly ridiculous, yet here we are), but there is a dotted estimated continuation.
Apr 16, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Time to take a look at BC cases, got too busy yesterday to update and data systems were down the day before, so three days of new data. We see clear signs of slowing. Between people being shell-shocked by case counts and March 30 restrictions, something seems to have worked! We are by no means out of the woods yet, and my trend lines are tuned to be aggressive in picking up new trends, so this may well flip. Encouragingly, the decline is visible in all Health Authorities except Fraser.
Apr 15, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their first report on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (April 14, 2021). Yay! Depending on people's time this may become a somewhat regular thing, maybe every other week. bccovid-19group.ca/publication/ap… It's a group effort with input from @sarperotto, @CarolineColijn, Dean Karlen, myself, and others in the group on where we are at and what we should expect to see short and medium term. This slide describes the main problem, cases surged because of variants of concern.
Apr 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
BC got 6 days of data today, after the long weekend data blackout preceded by a day of technical difficulties that apparently could not get resolved before now. Trend line is now a little above 1050 cases a day and still trending upward. All Health Authorities except Northern are at record levels. We should start to see the effect of the change in measures slowing growth this week, but they likely won't be enough to reverse the growth given the share of VOC we are at now.
Apr 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It would be extremely beneficial for everyone if the BCCDC could put out a document laying out the evidence behind this claim, showing how things are different in BC than in other places in the world. BC public health has made this claim before and the "evidence" that was presented was ridiculously bad. Artificially shifted timelines, data not normalized, just amateur hour all the way.
Apr 6, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
BC ties themselves into a knot with various competing layers of property taxes. Businesses are now paying the Speculation and Vacancy tax on the air parcels introduced to lessen the load of rising commercial property taxes. vancouversun.com/news/local-new… It totally sucks for the businesses (and should probably get fixed), but it's a lot of fun for people following the various tax quirks. Let's unravel this. Firstly, commercial tenants in BC generally pay the property taxes as part of their "triple-net" lease.
Mar 31, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
New preprint with BC N501Y screening data is out! First time I have seen proper VOC data out in public. Data is old now, but let's take a look what we can learn about data up to week 9, so end of February. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Before we go there, the preprint also has this neat summary of the point-prevalence study that @PennyDaflos also wrote about. The data in the preprint is about the left branch, N501Y screening. Positive results are presumed to be VOC. In BC that will be B.1.1.7 in most cases.
Mar 30, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Over a year ago StatCan released the first set of CHS data that showed frighteningly high rates of forced moves in BC. @LausterNa and I dug into recently released PUMF data to add context, see how this varies within BC, and how it has changed over time. doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2021/03/2… This is a follow-up on this over a year old post that looked at forced moved (and other data) from the CHS when the first tables were released. The PUMF data we got now allows to paint a fuller picture. doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2019/11/2…
Mar 30, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
It's Monday, and BC got 4 days worth of data after skipping Friday's update and the usual weekend data blackout. (What pandemic?) And as expected, it's looking bad. The trend is at almost 900 daily cases now. Vancouver Coastal has now overtaken Fraser with the highest case incidence, and cases are also clearly rising in Island and Interior Health Authorities.
Mar 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hey, my favourite Vancouver single family lots are for sale! Lots of stories behind these lots, they have been tossed back and forth between investment companies over the years. The proposed homes look awful and are likely just an attempt to avoid the EHT. squamishchief.com/real-estate-ne… These lots have featured prominently on the @ahvancouver walking tours of Vancouver's worst zoning. The biggest of the three lots is Vancouver's largest non-sub-dividable RS lot at almost 3 acres in size.
Mar 3, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of discussions on changing the vaccine dose scheduling in BC. I don’t know much about this, so I asked a friend who are directly involved in research and development of (COVID) vaccines. My takeaway: 1. Vaccine trials have a short first/second does schedule, mostly because it accelerates trials and has lower attrition.
2. When asked, vaccine manufacturers will always point to schedule from trails as recommended protocol for liability reasons.