Arbor - Earnings Preview & CLO Update

90+day delinquencies almost double month-on-month. Net interest spreads tank in light of massive modifications.

We also review Arbor's financial shenanigans and outline expectations for Q4 due this morning. $ABR 1/
Report now live on our website $ABR 2/

viceroyresearch.org/2025/02/21/arb…

Arbor - PIK-ing Holes in CLO Data

Our latest report shows $ABR has severely under reported PIK and adulterated/manipulated underlying borrower data as their book collapses.

CLO delinquencies are nonetheless up 46% m/m to November, most having already been modified. 1/ Report now live on our website. $ABR 2/

viceroyresearch.org/2024/12/16/arb…

$ABR Q3 results out.

Modifications have vastly accelerated, and concessions to borrowers are rapidly shrinking the spread (even accounting for rate-cut).

Q/Q pictured below also shows that the proportion of PIK income is growing.1/

https://twitter.com/viceroyresearch/status/1851982744881865080

$ABR PIK appears to have grown about $83m this quarter alone, comprising 29% of its interest income and almost 150% of net income. Given Arbor's collateral assets are almost exclusively loss-making (DSCR < 0.5x), these amounts are non-recoverable.

MPW engages in marked-up uncommercial sale-leaseback deals with European tenants, paying up to 4.3x fair value, in order to finance tenants’ loss-making operations.



Our latest report, Under Waterland, is now live. $MPW 1/viceroyresearch.org/2024/10/22/mpw… In Q2 2023, MPW engaged in significant uncommercial round-trip transactions with its European tenants, Median and Priory Group, via sale-leaseback transactions. Both tenants are owned by Waterland Private Equity, with minority interests from $MPW. 2/

$MPW has consistently claimed Priory Group, its third-largest tenant, was a well-capitalized and profitable machine. This is a lie.

Priory Group has been operationally loss-making for years and relies on the proceeds of sale-leaseback transactions to remain solvent. 1/ Priory Group made an operational loss in 2023.

Priory’s rent is actually included in “finance costs”. Why this is not included as operational expenses baffles us.

EBITDA is further bumped by the exclusion of recurring “one-time” costs (including right-of-use assets). $MPW 2/

Globe Life – SEC Enforcement Confirms Active Investigation



The SEC Division of Enforcement has confirmed that Globe Like is subject to a formal, active, and ongoing investigation. $GL 1/viceroyresearch.org/2024/06/27/glo… The FOIA office responded to a Viceroy-instigated appeal to disclose any investigation and communication records between the regulator & $GL. Our appeal was unsuccessful on the basis that $GL is under formal, active & ongoing investigation by the SEC’s Division of Enforcement 2/

Globe Life – The Main Course. Report now live:



Viceroy’s research pushes the envelope on pervasive fraud at AIL, disgusting misconduct allegations, and their financial consequences. Globe Life is rotten from top to bottom. $GL #thread 1/viceroyresearch.org/2024/04/30/glo… Viceroy is short Globe Life (NYSE:GL) following an extensive investigation of the company & its major subsidiary American Income Life.

h/t to @FuzzyPandaShort, who produced a solid report outlining the extent of fraud at GL. This report will push the envelope:

$GL 2/

$MPW have provided unsatisfactory responses to long lists of questions to the SEC, who has now closed its enquiry and published it's entire correspondence with MPW fron early 2023. 1/

https://twitter.com/viceroyresearch/status/1773335110068170954

The straw that broke the camel's back is a letter from the SEC demanding Steward financials.

$MPW CEO Steven Scamner responds that despite repeated requests to provide audited financial statements, Steward had not done so, and is otherwise not required by law to do so. 2/

SCA – You Wood Not Believe It



Viceroy dives into $SCA's ludicrous valuations, its acquisition strategy and cash flow timing, rampant over-harvesting and comparison to peers.

Viceroy's latest report is live ahead of $SCA's AGM 1/ viceroyresearch.org/2024/03/22/sca…


SCA’s Forest Surveys: Beating Expectations
$SCA's 10-yearly forest surveys (FTAX) do not only establish inventory levels, but also lock-in growth and harvest rate simulations for extended periods of time. This is not unusual for a 100-year life cycle asset. 2/

Arbor earnings: the lipstick on the pig.

Arbor announced a $150m stock buyback in December 2023, and a $50m buyback in March 2023

Arbor has issued ~$20m shares in Q4 alone, and about $170m in 2023. Congratulations on your dividends (sarcasm). $ABR 1/

Structured business loans are down ~90% yoy. Dividends consist of principal, not profits. Where will growth come from? 2/ $ABR

Svenska Cellulosa - Fudging Your Lumbers



$SCA valuation methodology has relied on short-term price fluctuations, interest rate fluctuations, & mark-to-market assumptions for numerous unrealistic inputs to massively inflate SCA’s forestry assets. 1/viceroyresearch.org/2024/01/25/sca… We believe $SCA presents >50% downside risk.

Paper revaluation of SCA’s assets will not make SCA’s trees grow faster. Investors can choose to ignore this, but will still have to accept the cash yield that SCA produces. 2/

Arbor Realty Trust – Slumlord Millionaires

Report now live:



Arbor’s high-risk multifamily residential bridge loans, which comprise substantially all of its asset book, are going bad fast. They cannot be refinanced. The end is near. $ABR 1/viceroyresearch.org/2023/11/16/arb… In an industry plagued with delusion & bad decisions, $ABR stands out as the worst of the worst. A dive into Arbor’s underlying CLO data suggest its entire loan book is distressed and underlying collateral is vastly overstated.

We believe $ABR is a 🍩. $0.00. 2/

Hexagon – Six Sides to Every Story.



Management front-run $HEXAB investments through fraudulent investment vehicle. Organic growth is egregiously overstated. Intentionally opaque disclosures mask aggressive accounting & underperforming acquisitions. 1/ https://t.co/Kxo9HnI81nviceroyresearch.org/2023/07/19/hex…






Hexagon is a corporate dictatorship run by majority owner and controlling voter: Melker Schorling. Hexagon’s top-brass (Schorling, Chairman, C-Level executives) front-run Hexagon investments through an investment Viceroy believes management has committed fraud. $HEXAB 2/

Abalance - Manufacturing Nonsense

viceroyresearch.org/2023/05/17/aba…

#Abalance issued two unsatisfactory responses to concerns raised in our report.

Mgmt’s rebuttal does not deserve a response, however shareholders do. We will address every management denial, point-by-point, below. 1/ SUPPLY CHAIN & SCOPE

Despite over 20 pages and dozens more references in our reports to this effect, management claim that our concern related to supply chain forced labor is “unfounded”. It does not elaborate. 2/

エーバランスは日本人離れしている？そんなことはないと思います。

VSUNの太陽エネルギー製品は現在、米国の関税を回避しており、米国では2024年から販売が制限される予定です。中国製部品は現在、強制労働の貿易パートナーから調達しています。

viceroyresearch.org/2023/05/16/aba…

#abalance $3856 1/ エーバランスは、ソーラーパネルメーカーと称する日本企業です。同社の売上の約90%は、ベトナムの子会社であるVietnam Sunergy Joint Stock Corporation (VSUN)から得られています。#abalance $3856 2/

Abalance – Turning Japanese? We really don’t think so.

VSUN circumvents US duties and will be restricted for sale from 2024 in the USA. Chinese components currently sourced from forced labor trade partners.

viceroyresearch.org/2023/05/16/aba…

Viceroy report now live #abalance $3856 1/ Abalance is a Japanese corporation which purports to be a solar panel manufacturer. Approximately 90% of the company’s revenues are derived from its Vietnamese subsidiary, Vietnam Sunergy Joint Stock Corporation (VSUN) #abalance $3856 2/

MPW Case Study - MANOLETE!

Viceroy detail structure of $MPW's JV with Ralph De La Torre including fake transactions, backdated statements, outright lies, and MPW implications in criminal probe. Report now live. 1/

viceroyresearch.org/2023/02/08/mpw…


MPW’s joint venture with Steward CEO, Ralph De La Torre, has been the subject of intense curiosity by MPW bulls and bears alike. Today, Viceroy Research will detail the JV’s structure, the ownership of Steward Malta, and egregious, and likely criminal, payments. $MPW 2/

$MPW Case Study - Neuropsychiatric Hospitals. Our latest report is now live.

viceroyresearch.org/2023/02/01/mpw…

MPW pay a 200% premium for newly built Neuropsychiatric Hospital. A 2022 property appraisal comes in 72% below capitalized investment. 1/ Viceroy’s investigations show that combined costs of the Neuropsychiatric Hospital development and appraised value of land was ~$9.1m at the date of $MPW's acquisition. MPW claim to have outlaid over $28m on the project, which has been capitalized. 2/

COLOMBIA

$MPW purchased 3 hospitals in Colombia for a purported $135m. One hospital was badly damaged by an earthquake. The marked book value for the hospitals was about half of MPW's consideration, which the vendor did not appear to receive in full. 1/ On November 17, 2020, $MPW claims to have invested in 3 Colombian hospitals for $135m from local operator National Clinics Colombia (NCC) through an unnamed JV . The hospitals acquired were Clinica Centenario, Clinica Los Nevados and Clinica San Rafael. 2/

SALT LAKE CITY PORTFOLIO

$MPW plainly overpaid an estimated $700m for a portfolio of properties from Steward. It financed Stewards entire purchase of a larger portfolio, and extinguished the entire loan in return for a fraction of the properties. 1/ In 2017, $MPW loaned Steward $1.4b to purchase a Salt Lake City Hospital operator IASIS and their portfolio of 19 hospitals. It also made a further $100m minority interest equity contribution in the transaction. IASIS owned and operated 17 hospitals. 2/

MASSACHUSETTS

$MPW finances purchases for distressed tenants via cheap loans, then extinguishes loans *and provides additional consideration* in return for real property. 1/ In October 2016 $MPW acquired 9 Massachusetts facilities from Steward: 5 of them outright for 600m, 4 for 600m in mortgage loans and 50m in equity contributions. 2/