In my last thread I asked: what happened to gold the last time leveraged funds dumped it during a geopolitical crisis?

Here is the answer. February 2022. Russia invades Ukraine. Energy prices spike. Inflation runs to 9%. The Fed starts hiking aggressively.

Gold initially jumps to $2,070 on fear. Then sells off for seven straight months. By October 2022 it is at $1,620. A 22% drop from peak.

Sound familiar?

Gold just dropped 5% in a single day.
Silver down 10%. Mining stocks down 8 to 12%.

Before you panic, understand what is actually happening here. Three weeks ago gold was at $4,983 with the dollar at a 3.5 month high.

I said then: the dollar rally is masking gold’s real strength. It is absorbing headwinds without breaking.

Today is the next chapter of that same story.

Last night, four things happened simultaneously.

A war escalated. A Fed chair spoke. A chairman walked out. And Indian ADRs collapsed in the final 90 minutes of US trading.

Here is the complete picture before markets open today.

🧵 Israel struck South Pars. The world’s largest natural gas facility. First time Iran’s upstream energy infrastructure has been targeted since the war began February 28.

Brent crude went to $110.

Then Iran responded. Ras Laffan in Qatar took a direct missile strike. Extensive damage confirmed. That one facility supplies 20% of global LNG.

The energy war just became a Gulf war.

Nifty at 23,800. Down 1.7% today. Everyone asking me if this is the moment to put in more than the usual amount. Here is my honest answer. 🧵 Three separate stories are converging right now. Private credit stress. A Wall Street bank pulling back. And a war with no clear endpoint. Each one matters. Together they matter more.