I am here to help. Anand Srinivasan’s brother and on Instagram as vinodsrinivasan_
Jul 15 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
The Economist studied financial gurus across America, Britain, India and South Korea.
The finding: every country’s most popular money advice is a mirror of that country’s biggest money mistake.
This thread might tell you which mistake is yours.
Start with America.
Dave Ramsey, the biggest personal finance voice there, preaches one thing with religious intensity: kill your debt. All of it. Even a cheap 3% mortgage from 2021.
Why so extreme? Because 13% of US credit card balances are now 90+ days overdue. Near 2010 crisis levels.
Jul 13 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Dubai is quietly building an escape route around its own crown jewel.
Not a press release. Concrete.
And it tells you more about the Gulf’s future than anything Trump or Tehran said this week. Thread.
DP World’s Jebel Ali is the largest container port in the region. 15.6 million containers last year. It built modern Dubai.
A senior company official told the FT: “Jebel Ali will continue to be Jebel Ali.”
Now watch what the company is actually doing.
Jul 13 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Nifty IT rallied 4% today. Finfluencers are calling it a comeback. I opened the ADR chart in New York before writing this. It tells a very different story.
The celebration first. TCS up 6% on a multi year AI deal with ABB. HCL up 6% ahead of results tonight. LTIMindtree up 4% after 17% profit growth. Nifty IT at a 1 month high.
Jul 11 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
A bond paying 18.95% got fully subscribed in India this week. BlackRock, Goldman, Ares and Farallon lined up for it.
Your fixed deposit pays 7%. Before the jealousy kicks in, read this.
Shapoorji Pallonji Group raised commitments of about ₹21,500 crore. A ₹15,200 crore rupee tranche at 18.95% for three years, plus $650 million offshore at around 14.5%.
Oversubscribed. Half the demand came from investors touching SP paper for the first time.
Jul 11 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
The petroleum ministry published a long defence of E20 this week.
The most revealing sentence in it was not about fuel, engines, or mileage.
It was about banks.
The ministry’s lead argument: public sector banks have lent nearly ₹1 lakh crore annually to ethanol production and infrastructure.
Reverting to E10 would put those investments at risk.
Jul 6 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The RBI removed one sentence from its rulebook on June 24.
On June 30, it put the sentence back.
That sentence decides whether India’s most valuable private company stays private.
Thread.
The sentence defines indirect public funds. In plain language: money routed to you through group companies that themselves borrow from banks and bond markets counts as public money in your hands.
Twenty words of regulatory text. One very specific target.
Jul 2 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
An Indian IT company offered 140% above market price for a German firm.
Its own stock fell immediately.
The market thinks management overpaid. Management calls it a "God-given opportunity."
One of them is wrong. The answer tells you where Indian IT is headed. 🧵
The deal: Persistent Systems is acquiring Nagarro, a Munich-based digital engineering firm.
€81 per share. All cash. Total value around €1.27 billion, roughly $1.4 billion.
That's a 140% premium to Nagarro's undisturbed closing price. 94% above its 3-month average.
Jul 2 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
Someone is about to borrow ₹25,500 crore at 18.95%.
Against the most valuable private asset in India.
To understand why, you need a 78-year-old shareholding and a one-week-old RBI circular.
Thread.
Shapoorji Pallonji Group owns 18.37% of Tata Sons.
On paper, that stake is worth roughly ₹3 lakh crore.
SP Group's total debt: around ₹55,000 to 60,000 crore.
The asset covers the debt five times over. So where is the problem?
Jun 29 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Accenture just changed how it pays raises. TCS quietly moved bonuses from quarterly to annual.
Looks like an HR tweak. It isn’t.
It’s the first visible crack in a business model that built middle-class India. 🧵
Start with one number from company annual reports.
Median employee pay growth at Wipro:
FY23: +13.4%
FY26: -3.2%
Negative. The typical Wipro employee’s pay didn’t just grow slower. It went backwards.
Infosys fell from 12.9% to 3.8% over the same stretch. TCS sits around 5%.
Jun 29 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Retail India is doing two things at once right now.
One is quietly brilliant. The other could wreck portfolios.
Let me show you the data. 🧵
The brilliant part:
Lumpsum equity inflows crashed 40% in May. Biggest drop in a year. Everyone got scared of Iran, crude, the rupee.
But SIPs? Held flat at ₹30,954 cr. Third straight month above 30k.
People didn’t panic. The auto-debit kept buying while the brain wanted to run.
Jun 17 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The Fed just held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. Boring headline. But look closer.
For the first time, not a single member voted to cut. No dissent. And the easing bias that sat in every statement for months is gone.
This is a regime change. Watch the facts, not the statements.
Why does this matter? Because the official story of the Iran ceasefire is that America won. Nuclear program destroyed, deal signed Friday in Switzerland, oil falling.
The Fed just told you a different story. And the bond market believed it.
Jun 9 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
The headlines say India’s rich are rushing money offshore as the rupee falls.
The RBI’s own data says something quieter and more interesting.
Total money leaving under LRS actually fell last year.
What changed is what kind of money is leaving. A thread. 🧵
The numbers first.
Three years, flat to down. There is no flood. The aggregate is not surging.
If the story were “capital flight,” this line would be climbing. It isn’t.
Jun 3 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Three screens this morning. Kuwait airport hit. TCS down 8.79%. Nifty red.
The obvious story is “Iran chaos sinks Indian markets.”
The obvious story is wrong. Two unrelated events landed on the same screen. Watch the facts, not the statements.
The TCS drop has nothing to do with Iran.
It came one day after the IT index rallied over 4%, its biggest single-day move of the year. What you saw was profit-booking plus short-selling unwinding a one-day pop.
Geopolitics did not crack TCS. Traders did.
May 28 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Back in 2021 HDFC Bank wanted deposits from MSRDC, a Maharashtra government infrastructure agency. The bank was offering 3.5% on savings. MSRDC, per the reporting, said rivals were offering 6%+ and would route a large deposit pool its way only at 6.01%.
The bank could not legally offer one depositor a special negotiated rate. RBI Master Directions explicitly prohibit that. So a regular 6.01% savings rate was never an option. The gap between 3.5% and 6.01% was 2.51 percentage points. That gap had to go somewhere.
May 27 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
The Eagles wrote that in 1977. In 2026, it describes Indian equities better than any analyst report.
Except the lyric is wrong. FIIs are leaving. The question is where they are going.
A thread.
First, the receipts.
Net FII flows into Indian cash equities, by month:
Jul 25: -47,667 cr
Aug 25: -46,903 cr
Sep 25: -35,301 cr
Oct 25: -2,347 cr
Nov 25: -17,500 cr
Dec 25: -34,350 cr
Jan 26: -41,435 cr
Feb 26: -6,641 cr
Mar 26: -1,22,540 cr
Apr 26: -67,300 cr
May 26 MTD: -33,815 cr
Eleven straight months of selling.
May 26 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
TOI's "3-year backstory behind PM's appeal" is the cleanest balance of payments picture I've seen in mainstream Indian media.
Rupee weakness is not a 2026 story. It is a structural problem dressed up as a crisis.
8 charts. Let me walk you through what's actually happening. 🧵
First, the framing problem.
We treat the rupee as if it falls because the dollar rises. This time, the dollar is falling. USD index is down. Yuan, Euro, Pound, Yen all holding or strengthening.
Rupee is falling against a falling dollar. That's not an FX story. That's a story about us.
May 23 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
The rupee at 96 is not really about Iran or oil or Trump.
It is about two years of artificial calm that has now broken.
What two pieces in the Indian Express this week revealed is more important than the number on your screen. Let me walk you through it.
In FY24, India had a balance of payments surplus of 64 billion dollars.
The rupee should have strengthened.
Instead the RBI bought 41 billion dollars of foreign currency and built forex reserves. The rupee was held in an 81 to 83 range for almost two years.
May 21 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Reliance has slowed the Jio IPO.
Bloomberg blames the Iran war.
The real reason is buried one paragraph in. Valuation discomfort. The risk of Jio listing below Bharti Airtel.
Let that sit for a moment. Then look at why.
Jio has 524 million users. Airtel has fewer.
By any retail intuition, Jio should be worth more.
It is not. And the gap is widening in the wrong direction.
May 17 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Everyone is debating whether AI will take jobs.
Wrong question. The right one: where is it showing up first, and how do you tell signal from noise?
Read three pieces this week. The Economist on labour history. Bloomberg on Korea's AI dividend debate. Reuters on India IT.
One signal jumps out.
The Economist's case: no technology in history has produced sustained mass unemployment. Diffusion is slow. Aggregate OECD employment is at record highs. Industrial Revolution wages stagnated because of food prices and the Corn Laws, not because machines stole labour's share.
Solid history. Wrong altitude.
May 16 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
ASML signed an MoU with Tata Electronics yesterday in The Hague, witnessed by Modi and Dutch PM Jetten.
Indian business TV will call this a “chip revolution.”
Let’s separate the signal from the statements.
The facts:
— MoU, not a purchase order
— Dholera 300mm fab, ₹91,000 cr (~$11B)
— ASML supplies lithography tools + talent training + supply chain + R&D cooperation
— Tata’s tech partner is PSMC Taiwan
— Nodes accessed: 28nm, 40nm, 55nm, 90nm, 110nm
Notice what’s missing from that list.
May 16 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The Centre just moved silver bar imports (HS 71069221, 71069229) from "Free" to "Restricted."
Most people will read this as a one-line news headline.
It isn't. It's the second half of a forex defence move that started 3 days ago.
Let me show you what's actually happening 👇
May 13: Import duty on gold and silver hiked from 6% to 15%. Overnight.
May 16: DGFT restricts the last two "Free" HS codes for silver bars. Now needs a licence.
Two moves. Three days apart. Same direction.
This isn't policy housekeeping. This is the government tightening the precious metals tap.
