Part of my consulting work is to anticipate events, and then prevent or mitigate adverse outcomes.

That aspect includes building plausible scenarios that could fit the available facts.

A thread on a possible,and crudely simple, motivation for the US confrontation with SA 🧵 / Since early this year, the framework of the escalation of the US conflict with us did not fit comfortably. I indicated here that that there was an important puzzle piece missing.

Some of the accusations (genocide, breach of G20 protocol) were simply too easily refutable./

This event is of course also an identity conflict masterclass (not identity politics).

Have a look on any thread and see how many people you can identify that are expressing doubt, an opinion or displeasure outside of their obvious or deemed in-group narratives.

/ /

We are rewarded for conformity to the in-group narratives, and punished for expressing doubt or dissent. Additionally, we lean towards interpreting the events to support our own identity and value assessments. We struggle to accept disconfirming evidence, and we find ways to /

A personal perspective -
Many years ago I was forced to give two years of my life to people who were convinced, and assured me, that the ANC and most of my countrymen were actually my enemies, and that they will take all that I value from me. Twenty six years after / / our democracy there are still some of you telling me that same thing. I understand your fear, I see through the few of you who trade on that pain. I want you to understand that I choose to not see things your way, that I choose not to live like that. I say that even though /