The Captain's Blog (A Yankee-centric baseball blog).
Feb 5, 2020 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
If you are criticizing the CBA for leading to the Betts trade, you are correct, but only partly. You are probably also in the minority among baseball fans. That's because the Betts trade is considered by many to be a design, not a flaw. Let me explain:
Luxury taxes (and their salary cap cousins) are sold to fans as facilitators of competitive balance, so recent cases of big market teams scrambling to get below the threshold is likely viewed by fans from around the league as a positive.
Sep 28, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
With only 2 games left, MLB attendance is down 2.4%, representing the acceleration of a slow, but gradual decline since 2013. That will undoubtedly be portrayed within the "baseball is dying" narrative, but when viewed with context, it's really more strategic than a systemic ill.
However, the recent acceleration does have a systemic influence, and that becomes evident when you break down attendance by league. As illustrated in the chart, NL and AL attendance has diverged. While the AL is down 7.5%, the NL is up 2.1% in 2019.
Aug 28, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
In April 2000, David Glass bought the Kansas City Royals for $96 million. Now, he is expected to sell it for $1 billion. At the number, his investment would have resulted in a compound annual growth rate of 12.43%. That's a pretty good return. But, there's more.
From 2001 to 2018, Forbes estimates the Royals have recorded an operating income of $167.9 million, meaning EBITDA alone almost doubled Glass' initial investment. That's a yield of 9.3% on top of the CAGR.
Jul 16, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
If I asked you to name some of the weakest righty pull hitters, you might guess Elias Diaz, Billy Hamilton and Juan Lagares, but what about Aaron Judge? Among RHBs with at least 15 PAs to the pull side, Judge’s sOPS+ of 44 is 32nd lowest in all of baseball. Source: @baseball_ref
In the past, Judge has had prolific production when pulling the ball, so his drop off in 2019 has been pretty drastic.
Apr 11, 2019 • 23 tweets • 6 min read
Yesterday, Forbes released its annual business of baseball report. See here for analysis: captainsblog.info/2019/04/10/mlb…. What follows are some key points. forbes.com/mlb-valuations…
MLB op. profit topped $1bn for first time, with 7 teams >$70mn, including the Red Sox, who had by far the highest player expense in the game. Interestingly, Boston’s $63mn increase in revenue was offset by $41mn more in player costs, and the net result was a small drop in EBITDA.
Feb 6, 2019 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts on requiring pitchers to throw to at least three batters...At first blush, it seems drastic. But, when you look closely, it could end up being a cosmetic change. In 2018, there were 1,876 non game ending appearances of 2 or fewer batters, or about .75 per game.
So, if the goal is to quicken the game, and the average pitching change eats up 5-6 minutes, there would be a modest reduction resulting from the new rule, all else being equal. However, there is some possible mitigation of that reduction.