After 2 strikes on Primorsk and 3 strikes on Ust-Luga, here is my summary of the tanks that are destroyed or significantly damaged from the fires.

The second set of strikes at Primorsk took advantage of the prevailing winds to destroy 3 at the W . . ./1

https://twitter.com/MT_Anderson/status/2038415509503483967

. . . side of the facility that it looks like caused fire damage on two to the East as indicated. Four tanks (note 1) were destroyed and one damaged in the first round of strikes. Down at Ust-Luga, there were three rounds of strikes over 4 days. /2

Petrol prices, the lifting of sanctions and kinetic strikes will come up today on Good Morning Kyiv on @Volya4UA for sure, so I thought I’d jot down some thoughts and information from the background.

First, most everyone is screeching about gasoline prices at the pump so . . ./1 . . . let’s put that in perspective a bit around the world. Let’s start in 🇺🇸 since they started this war and have a hyper obsession with the cost of gasoline, as if they paid the highest prices in the world. The truth is, they don’t even though . . ./2

Today in 🇺🇦 Fan fiction is Vysotsk LNG and oil export terminals. Due to the 🇺🇸 essentially lifting sanctions on 🇷🇺 oil currently stranded in shadow fleet tankers today, those hundreds of millions of barrels of crude that couldn’t find a home will now be sucked up quickly . . ./1 . . . by 🇮🇳 and 🇨🇳 refineries at a large discount and the cashflow to 🇷🇺 will get a large increase. Note that this will have basically zero impact on gasoline prices in 🇺🇸 because (surprise surprise) the current increases there are just sellers . . ./2

Since we will be talking about strikes on Orsk and Kirishi refineries today on @Volya4UA I thought it would be useful to contrast the response to those with the explosion and fire at Chevron El Segundo yesterday. In that case, it was an . . . /1

latimes.com/california/sto… . . . an industrial incident on their hydrocracking unit that takes heavy bottoms from the crude unit and breaks up the large molecules under heat and pressure with hydrogen added to it to produce kerosene that then gets further polishing treatment to make jet fuel. . . /2

See, here’s an example of not accepting the rule of law (checks and balances in the Constitution) as well as the norms (abuse of recess appointments) of operation of a liberal democracy that I was talking about on @Volya4UA the last few weeks. . . /1 . . . See, these guys like the Mango Mussolini and his new tech bro “cabinet” think neither the law applies to them ( be it secret 🇺🇸 docs, or a lottery to join your PAC), or the norms of operation of a legal system apply to them and they will attempt to cast both aside . . . /2

I apologise. This is going to be a very long 🧵with the content of my Senate submission into 🇦🇺 support for 🇺🇦. First the timeline, as it is demonstrative of the approach to the subject from our Government. On 27 March 2024, the Senate referred an inquiry into . . . /1 🇦🇺 support for 🇺🇦 to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee for inquiry and report by 4 August. I made my submission on 18 April. Submissions closed on 10 May. On 2 July, the Senate agreed to an extension to 16 September. Hearings took place from . . . /2

The Case For Immediate Action By Australia on F/A18

Strap in for a big 🧵

@AlboMP
@RichardMarlesMP
@SenatorWong
@PatrickGormanMP
@AmbVasyl
@FinEmbAustralia
@bennpackham
@andrewtillett Let me preface this discussion about the war in Ukraine with this: I feel that assisting Ukraine in is defence of its territory and expulsion of Russia to the 1991 borders is in Australia’s strategic interest. If you do not share this view, or in fact oppose the military... 1/

I am nobody. But I’m going to offer my opinion on the war in Ukraine anyway. My entire of set of qualifications consists of being a lifelong reader, having done my minimum amount of service in the US Army in the 80s (GI Bill, baby), having lived and travelled in Russia... 1/ (and the Ukraine) for the better part of 14 years and (possibly most relevant) having played and even mastered basically the best of every tactical or strategic war-game of its era from checkers, through the classics from Avalon Hill to Halo or XCOM. Here’s what I see coming...2/