thinking about a unique trading strategy, posting it on here to get feedback and thoughts

if you aren't a mentally ill trader keep scrolling this isn't for you part of the reason ive done alright in trading is game selection

it doesnt matter if you are the 10th best poker player in the world if you are playing with the top 9

ie trading to latency arb eth onchain is going to be hard but some illiquid shitcoin is possible

man i am in a peak 80s music mood

what is your favourite song from the 80s? good vibes only

stuff you can play on a boat and put you in a good mood i'll go first - king of wishful thinking

i need some new pepe reactions, post your current favourite/s this one also goat'd

this might seem out of touch but $650 a week for renting a unit seems expensive

dont people only make like 100k a year?

do ppl really spend >30% of their pre-tax income to rent a shitty unit?

my mrs & i are looking to buy a house but i dont want my repayments to be >1k a week we can get a REALLY nice house with all the gadgets but im just gonna get 50% of the one we can afford

im more interested in being rich than living somewhere that looks like a rich person would live

even an average house near the water in the sunshine coast is like 1m tho

been a while since i've done a thread on trading and today someone asked about what im doing in the markets

this thread will be on how i manage capital and trading in general

will talk about a few specific strategies in each segment as well

1/x the way i like to structure my portfolio is to have the a large allocation to risk premia

(i believe) to collect risk premia is to take risk that other people dont want and getting paid for it

in a sense it is kinda like sell insurance

2/x

ever since i read Sinclair's book i have been thinking a lot about collecting risk premia vs looking for alpha

he gives a break down on risk premia vs inefficiencies in this video, i urge you to watch!

quick thread on my thoughts on crypto risk premia

1/x i think most ppl will agree crypto has good trading opportunities

however, in crypto counterparty & rug risk is higher (relative to tradfi)

so naturally you'd expect the risk premia you can collect to be higher too

but how much higher?

2/x

me after finding out BTC is trading at a 5% discount in colombia the problem is getting the colombian bank account, you need to fly over to get it but then you can buy btc/usdt at a 5% discount, sounds tasty?

no one asked but im doing to do a thread on all the info i have on the NGN arbitrage

hopefully someone will read this and make money or save them time going down the rabbit hole

1/x to give you quick the run down,

you can sell dollars at 750 on binance, and through the official central bank rate you can buy them back at 480

this is like a 60% arbitrage, how bloody good!

If anyone can show me a way to get money out of Nigeria/ NGN I will pay $1000 usdt immediately

If the method is scalable I’ll pay more / a cut of the profits

So far I can only find really operational heavy ways that would struggle to handle any size okay guys like think about this and the restraints

> you cannot take it out via a bank because interpol will flag you
> you cannot get it in cash and fly it out
BUT
> you can get a NGN bank account with NGN

what can you buy with NGN that converts for lower than N700?

i want to do a thread on all the useful crypto/trading content I have found in my travels

for new traders it can be hard to know who to listen to

the purpose of this thread is to share some ppl/content & ideas with you that i find useful

1/x everything here is in no particular order

i just have a bunch of tabs open & i'll be pasting + giving a brief overview

we will be starting with blogs then youtube channels

If you have more to add please comment as i am always looking for new thing to learn!

been trading intraday lately,

sometimes i get messages asking about strategies i trade so i thought i might post some observations i've had/general thoughts on intraday stuff

1/x prior to now i never traded intraday because it would take me too long to get edge there, however, something i read from insilico's blog fascinated me

i read this a while ago, i didnt act on it but kept it in mind

source (must read): medium.com/@Insilico/basi…

I have been talking & thinking a lot about the risk curve & expected returns in crypto

i figured i might share my thought & thought process and you can tell me why you think

1/x in trading/life we all use assumptions in our decision making framework

some assumptions are subtle. they are subtle because they have such a low probability of occurring therefore most ppl just assume it won't happen

other assumptions require you to think about

heard rumors of ftx being insolvent

if i hear even a whisper of shit like that im fucking out

the prop desks in crypto are worse than teenage girls when it comes to gossip and i dont want to be collateral damage in a self fulfilling prophecy q: is this irrational?
a: yes

q: is there a >10% chance ftx is insolvent?
a: no probs 1% (if that)

q: why are you rushing to get your assets out then?
a: if it is true, the consequences of that 1% is so great that i cannot stand the outcome therefore i must act

might take an L but bought a bunch of gala on huobi

no hedge, no stop loss, we die like men jesus christ

i dont know why i keep finding new ways to lose money

the old ways work just fine

Hey guys I want to talk about two trading strategies, their ev and why I think one has a higher ev

The trades are
1) buying before a moon candle
2) fading a moon candles

I am still learning about order flow so any feedback is appreciated

Let’s go through it 1/x First let’s go through a moon candle, what is it ?

Is it whales accumulating?
Is it the run up before the coin doubles?

maybe but I believe it’s a trader demanding liquidity & paying a high price

Instead of thinking about it in trading terms let’s look at a simple example

2/x

i am seeing ppl say btc is not worth buying because the 'fair' long term price is 150k

thus if you bought btc rn you would only make 7.5x

why make a measly 7.5x when you could buy an altcoin & make 100x!

quick thread on this thought process & why its bullshit

1/x firstly: i am not a btc maxi, i didnt buy btc at 4 dollars and now want btc domination

if bitcoin goes to 0 and altcoins go to infinity it will make no difference to me

in fact, i'd probably make more money

now that is out of the way 2/x

guys i've had a few messages asking me what is ev, im going to do a thread on ev and how it can help you make money trading and (hopefully) better decision making

1/x what is ev?

ev is slang for expected value, the easiest way to think about ev is ‘if i do x 1000 times what is the average outcome?’

If:

outcome is positive = +ev (positive expected value)
outcome is negative= -ev (negative expected value)

2/x

i think if you have <200k/300k trading is -ev

with that in mind if you are to succeed as a trader you will disregard my advice and trade anyway some people disagree, 'you can become rich from trading!'

the reality:
- 95% of traders fail
- trading & can years to learn
- high opportunity cost
- (unlike most professions) you can LOSE money doing your job
- other activities have higher probability of success and higher ev