🧵 THREAD: Expected Points

◎ What are they?
◎ How are they collected?
◎ Why are they so useful in measuring the ability of football teams? Over the course of the season, we will share ‘Justice Tables’ which compare teams’ actual points totals to their Expected Points totals.

But what are Expected Points? And how do they help us analyse the true performance of football teams?

THREAD: Expected Points

◎ What are they?
◎ How are they collected?
◎ Why are they so useful in measuring the ability of football teams? Over the course of the season, we will share ‘Justice Tables’ which compare teams’ actual points totals to their Expected Points totals.

But what are Expected Points? And how do they help us analyse the true performance of football teams?

What will happen to Thomas Frank if Brentford start the season badly?

Spoiler: it involves xG.

Thread:-

(1/11) Friday 13th August will see Brentford play their first ever Premier League match.

Their ambition this season will be to survive relegation, but what will happen if they start the season poorly?

(2/11)

𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗: 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱’𝘀 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘅𝗚 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁

◎ The ‘moneyball’ model
◎ The company behind the stats
◎ The data-driven philosophy

(1/12) This is the story of how Brentford changed the game.

Their pioneering use of xG data has led the small West London club to the brink of Premier League promotion for the first time in their history.

Their story has been likened to baseball’s “moneyball” revolution.

(2/12)

𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗴𝘂𝗲: 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 Expected Points measures the number of points a team could have expected to have taken from a game, based on the scoring opportunities (xG) that they created and conceded in that game.

How does the Expected Goals method deal with two consecutive high quality shots in quick succession?

THREAD:-

(1/6) Consider Man City’s penalty against Watford.

Sterling takes and misses the penalty worth 0.78(xG).

Immediately after he taps in the rebound worth 0.90(xG).

(2/6)