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yenwod Profile picture
yenwod
@yenwod_
used to make markets 2015-2023
Feb 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
looking at the start of this incident, you can see the bybit taker market order in both directions with binance lagging a few dozen ms behind Image in the most active 1500ms period -- $250m traded (!) -- the market has figured out this is not price discovery, and binance reacts quite differently

eyeballing, orders range 10-50ms apart. they could be placing market orders serially, limited by the API response time Image
Nov 24, 2025 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Ok last MON pre-launch markets post, since it launched today.

Previously I used the GBM Pr[St > K] formula to estimate the likelihood of different launch prices. Here I'll share visual intuition for this formula:

Image 1. Start by looking at historical MON-USDC prices, convert price changes to log returns, and measure the standard deviation, sigma: Image