Things I’m personally looking out for objectively to exit the markets:

On-chain data

1. adjusted SOPR spiking to levels above 1.2 (shows signs of heavy profit taking)
2. MVRV ratio peaking near 3-4, which basically means there’s an extremely high level of unrealised profits -cont.
3. MVRV Z-score spiking and go close to 7 and above (usually happens at the top)
4. Miner BTC balance start to climb to higher levels (represents significant selling pressure)

Trading Journal October 31 Update

Overall up 18x on my trading position with a realised 2.5x (cashed out). Currently sitting on ~16x unrealised.

Was potentially way more but I went against my gut feel and kept trying to play Goat betas. I realized my hot hand was running cool when I started forcing trades and playing betas with bad sizing. Got too over complacent basically

Current AI meme meta is basically same market behaviour as any other meta that we’ve seen before.

Animal memecoins/NFTs/DeFi summer coins etc all had an initial spark, and then leading to the creation of betas where people chase and chase non stop. No exceptions. The end game is basically a power law distribution.

Usually the thing that sparked off the whole run ends up getting majority of the value accruing back to it

eg:
-Doge/Shib for animal memes
-Crypto Punks for NFTs (later Pudgys)
-AAVE/UNI for DeFi

Probably same for AI memes

As market conditions become harder to navigate relative to the past decade of easy money, here are some quotes to remain grounded and finding direction of where we are in the market cycle

Some of my favourite golden quotes from the legend @HowardMarksBook 👇 “In business, financial and market cycles, most excesses on the upside — and the inevitable reactions to the downside, which also tend to overshoot —are the result of exaggerated swings of the pendulum of psychology.”

PFPs were among the earliest use cases for NFTs, designed to be used as profile pictures for online identities. But aside from aesthetic appeal, what drives their success? Some case studies below 👇 🧵 Among the various NFT categories on Ethereum, PFPs represent 70% of the total NFT market cap, with generative art in second place at 13.5% and virtual land in third at 8%.

But what is driving the popularity of PFPs?

The answer: PFPs are easy to understand + speculate upon

Over the weekend, I've been renewing my personal thesis for $BLUR, why I think selling my airdrop was a mistake, and why Blur Bidding is a game-changer for the NFT space. A short 🧵 1/What is the most important aspect wrt product experience on NFT marketplaces? Ease of buying/selling NFTs.

The majority of trading volume in the current state of the NFT market is from whales, and they want one thing: To be able to buy cheaper and sell quickly in SIZE