I have this thing where once I identify a problem, I cannot stop obsessively thinking about it until I find a solution that puts my brain at ease. Now I’m accosting you with info you didn’t ask for. Soz.

I’ve settled like so: for satellite services in SA: an RFP. Hear me out. We have one major issue in the ICT sector: anti-competitiveness. To this day, the Competition Commission is still fighting with MTN, Vodacom et al. over market dominance. Once monopolies are entrenched, they’re incredibly hard to undo.

I get the sense that most think the policy directive alone will exempt Starlink. No. Not by a stretch. The process currently unfolding is procedurally flawed & unconstitutional. A long thread about the law, legal principles, and why it needs to be halted & corrected.🪡🧵 Core point: exempting Starlink from the BBBEE ICT Sector Code’s obligations through a Comms Dept ministerial policy directive is incorrect procedurally & constitutionally Once published, 99.9% chance it is taken on judicial review and struck down. It is already dead on arrival.

Our pushback against disinfo about SA continues. Next: amplifying those who reject the narrative that being white in SA equals persecution. The perception is that all of white SA feels this way. No

A thread of voices that need to be louder than those of lies & hate. Thread 🧵🪡 Why this is important: Social media is flooded with visual cues: videos and images meant to “prove” genocide & persecution in South Africa. To counter this, we need to amplify the visuals of those within the white community. especially Afrikaners who say: this is not our truth

So Grok has started not publicly answering Qs about its modelling & training. Nice try. Grok meet promptcraft and info eliciting strategy. What I uncovered is how it defines “truth.” Grok has not previously articulated its epistemology this clearly in public. A thread. 🪡🧵 1. First, why did Grok suddenly stop responding to the conversation we were having about its model and architecture? I asked. The room was tense. The answers cautious. Further probing & suddenly: error messages. (😂 )

Starlink. Hard-headedness and a deep aversion to being strong-armed and bullied aside, I'll be rational and explore workarounds about it.

First of, Elon Musk is not without options. He is no sorry baby we all need to feel terribly sorry for. There are plenty of South African billionaires he could partner with: talk to Motsepe. Talk to Oppenheimer, talk to Rupert. Ask how they do it. Partner. Figure it out. Where there’s a will, there’s a way. International conglomerates have navigated South Africa’s regulatory landscape, ask how they did it. At the end of the day, do you want to make a profit or no? Do you want that bag or no? Adapt to the regulations of the markets you operate in, or stall, your move, grown man.

Not a single tech company would dare not meet the stringent regulatory requirements the EU has for tech companies. You don't? Here's a $10 billion fine, how's them apples? What are we? The ugly stepsister? Sorry I've started being hard-headed again, breathe. K, k, k. Hands up in defeat. We go the legislative amendment route. Have you met legislatures? That would take YEARS. Go back to 1.

I must say though, it would be kinda nice to have the kind of leverage Latin America and Canada have exercised, no? I am just saying from a strategic perspective. Shrug.

At the end of the day, this could work. It just needs will. But the greater point is this: the government can't go above any legislative requirements, and the Constitutional Court would strike that executive action down before we can finish writing "constitutional delinquent." It is a VERY VERY slippery slope. That legislation contravened, which one next? You mos allowed it for the one? Is that power you want to give away? It is really that boring, cold and dry, I fear. There is the option to amend. Cool. But if that is the route: you're going to have to WAIT. This is the very likely scenario: Legislation drafted and tabled in Parliament (a few months) -> Committee discussions where there will likely be major resistance and (stall for another few months) -> passed with ANC + DA -> promulgated by the President (a few months) -> stalled because constitutional challenge by EFF + MK (months, years) -> Concourt says it contravenes requirement for redress -> back to Parliament (years). Repeat over and over. THAT is the reality. FIGURE it out, but ok'salayo, the government cannot go above its legislative requirements.

1. Why is there so much denial of the genocide in Palestine on social media, despite overwhelming evidence thereof? The answer lies not in a lack of proof, but in deeply entrenched cognitive biases that dehumanise the people of Palestine. Facts struggle against hate. A 🧵🪡 2. Facts alone cannot overcome cognitive biases, especially when they challenge deep ideologies or moral self-perceptions. Genocide denialism thrives not on ignorance but on the rejection of uncomfortable truths. Denial of the genocide in Palestine is no exception.

Part 2: The Digital Xenophobia Movement and Foreign Influence Operations (FIO)

An EXTREMELY long thread. 🧵🪡 1. At the get, I must make this clear. There are people with legitimate concerns about illegal immigration. That is not the issue of contention here. The issue is with those who use those legitimate concerns to polarize, destabilize SA, spread hate speech & incite violence

The Genesis of Xenophobia Social Media Influence Operation and its impact, a thread. The why, who, and how.🧵🪡

This will be an extremely long thread that might upset some parties and “movements.” I'm generally unphased by Twitter mob attacks. Go for it. The truth is the truth. 1. On an occasion such as this, we should, perhaps, start from the beginning. So, let me begin. I am an African, as Mbeki once said. The serious point of what has become "digital xenophobia," is that it is mostly against African foreign nationals. It is so saddening.

I asked ChatGPT to describe your favorite politicians, except make it funny. The point was to see whether it could still “roast,” a prompt removed early on. Herewith, ChatGPT roasting your faves, but still nice.

A thread of kind (ish) roasts. 🪡🧵 1. Steenhuisen:

John Steenhuisen is like the perennial high school class president who just never left the student council. Picture this: a guy with the energy of a motivational speaker, the charisma of your overly enthusiastic uncle at a family reunion, and a passion for politics that makes him the designated driver of the Democratic Alliance (DA) in South Africa. He's the guy who probably color-codes his socks and has a detailed five-year plan for his houseplants. When he's not busy rallying for the DA, you can imagine him practicing his speeches in front of a mirror, with a fervor that could put a Shakespearean actor to shame. In the world of South African politics, John Steenhuisen is the organized, slightly nerdy hero we didn't know we needed, but definitely got.

I’m on a road trip and I’m trying not to fall asleep. I’m obvs a passenger.

Time for a ridiculously long thread again. This time we’re talking definitions of social media manipulation tactics often use by parties, companies, foreign influence ops etc.

A 🧵🪡 1. As a start, this is a constantly evolving field, and the terminology changes because tactics change. Sometimes, there isn’t agreement on definitions. For example, fun fact: there is no real agreement in academia on what AI is and should be. But we move.

Let me let you into a secret. I probably shouldn’t because it’ll result in them toning this behaviour down. But, I think the abject lack of self-awareness will not make this happen for some. I’m throwing caution into the wind. Also, nice people don’t gatekeep.

You can tell a lot about the DA is thinking from various accounts. It is 99.9% correct. Also, I suppose I can discern this because I know all these people and their psychology very well.

- Gareth van Onselen is its inclination to assume everyone is stupid. That confidence as competence. That mediocre. That insecure. He gives a lot of insight into where that aspect of its personality is at - the petulant toddler
- Ryan Coetzee is cool, rational and EQ. Measured, smart, cautious, strategic. He’s the adult. He makes the most sense. He is not irksome.
- Leon Schreiber is John’s mind and the latest DA spin on the newest topic on which it has shot its foot.
- John is smart enough not to run his account. Listen to his interviews
- Helen’s actions are so predictable. She's a combination of the other three. Exhibit A. The ANC is stupid.

The coalition agreement between the DA, ANC, and IFP may not meet constitutional muster, I argue. Regardless of whether it has been agreed upon, it is null & void. It contains provisions that skirt too close to the violation of the party/state division.

A thread. 🧵🪡 1. To start, it is an exciting time. Finally, the ANC can be held accountable. Wonderful, but does that process meet constitutional muster? Is the process legal? I am afraid that it is not, in my humble opinion.

STOP posting photos of your kids online. Man arrives at kindergarten, says he’s 3 year old girl’s Dad. Her real parents arrive. At interrogation he reveals that he had found her photo online, needed to have her, found her school, looked for an open day & planned to kidnap her. If you think this will never happen to you, please jolt your system into shock by watching this.

I don’t know what the takeaways from this election are, but so far it’s:

-CR: probably best to resign. The ANC’s performance was dismal. I don’t think he is an awful person. He means well. I like him. But to spare SA what could be months of ANC warfare. When elephants fight… -Zuma: My Lord. 🙆🏾‍♀️ I don’t think democratic South Africa has or will see anytime soon this incisive, masterful & diabolical a strategist. His career ended on a very sour note. Through this MK effort, he has added an epilogue to his story of a Phoenix rising from the ashes.

The final instalment. Only the top 3, I’m afraid, these take a lot of time. 🥲

I don’t think this analysis is interesting, however I hope it will foster deeper understanding about why ANC voters continue to vote ANC.

Election 2024: The ANC and the Politics of Loyalty.

A 🧵🪡 1. We all know the ANC’s dismal record, including the party itself and its voters. The question of why the ANC continues to lead the country despite this knowledge is intriguing. The answer, in a single word: LOYALTY.

Campaign Messaging analysis continues. By popular demand: the Economic Freedom Fighters.

Election 2024: The EFF and the Politics of Anger.

A thread 🧵🪡 1. Preface: I mulled over whether I wanted to do this because I feared it would be misinterpreted and I’d have to spend time explaining. Anger is such a difficult concept to discuss as it relates to black people, given the harmful Angry Black trope.

The DA has spent this entire election hawking fear.

Shall we analyse the campaign messaging of the various parties & the underlying strategy behind each? Let’s.

I’ll start with the one I know best.

Election 2024: The DA and the Politics of Fear. #RescueSA

A thread 🧵🪡

https://twitter.com/sundaytimesza/status/1794434592801259559

1. The "politics of fear" refers to the use of fear by political leaders & parties to influence public perception & voter behavior. This approach often involves emphasising or exaggerating threats, dangers, or crises to gain support and consolidate power.

1. If I may, I am really tired of the willing ignorance and mischaracterization of the role social media plays in South African politics by political "experts." I explained the what and how of social media data around politics y'day. Today is the why.

A thread. 🧵 2. Upfront, I must say that the role SM plays in politics is not determined anecdotally. It is evidence-based, scientific, theoretical work that merges data science, political science, behavioral science, comms strategy & others. It is a growing academic field and profession.

Perhaps it is time to explain this as it relates to South Africa. Do social media posts influence decision-making offline? Does it impact the vote? Very much. A lot. Far more than you think. I've done quite a bit of work around this on various topics. A thread. How could we possibly know what everyone is saying on social media around the election? There are millions of accounts and even more posts. Let's take a step back and establish context. The first question: what portion of the South African population is on social media?

Choosing Change, a Personal Reflection.

A thread🧵🪡

1. The sun has risen, marking a momentous day I have waited for all year. Today, I vote. 2. I do not intend to tell you who you should vote for. I only share the convictions guiding mine. Each vote reflects one's lived experiences, history, and beliefs. Yours is no exception. While we may differ, I champion your autonomy. Your vote is yours and yours alone.

Now @helenzille. You & John have gotten into the habit of posting about me behind blocked accounts because you know you want none of this smoke. You’re dying for it clearly. K. First of all you are a LIAR, that’s besides everything else that wrong with you. I parted ways with YOU That’s the first thing. You wanted to meet with me after to understand because you were so shocked I resigned. You told the media that I agreed to it because you were so desperate not to be the cause of yet another black person resigning.