How to find 10 baggers according to Mark Mahaney🧵

10 timeless lessons for public tech investors. The dude has covered tech stocks for the last 25 years

$40k -> $600

Unreal. Jesus fucking Christ man.

🧵Why the mag 7 are about to implode:

1/ The AI capex wave by $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $META due to rising gen AI inference workloads has a significant unintended consequence the market is not ready for.

The hidden AI killer is IMPAIRMENT LOSS (led by overusage and tech obsolescence). 2/ In 2025, AI capex spend will hit >$300b, funneled toward data centers & GPUs to support generative AI workloads.

This is rational given training and inference demand, but it overlooks a critical issue: hardware is being utilized at rates FAR exceeding original design specs.

The "AI Trade" has largely played out in the US in the last 3Y since ChatGPT led to:

An explosion in:
GPU spend $NVDA
Hyperscaler inference $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN
AI startups founded

Missed the US AI trade? This is how you can catch the China AI trade (which hasn't even begun yet): 1. The bottom of the stack: GPUs.

Personally, I think this stack is not as investible. Just long $NVDA as most China cos will buy H20s.

China doesn't have a "Dominant GPU champion" that you can buy given Huawei is private & the chips are inferior.

$SMICY $HHUSF are far behind

Why AI is a house of cards:

1. You pay $200 a year for an AI app (like Cursor).

2. Cursor pays OpenAI $500 for API tokens ($300 of which is VC funding).

3. OpenAI pays AWS $1000 for compute ($500 of which is VC funding).

4. $AWS pays $10k for $nvda GPUs.

See the problem? Unless you as a user are miraculously comfortable paying $1k for the AI app

The only thing propping up AI is VC funding

No VC funding:
The AI application layer is unprofitable
The LLM layer is unprofitable
The compute layer is unprofitable
The GPu layer is unsustainable

Your job is to find a way to hit $1-3 million and become unemployed by age 40. Make your money

Then get off the grid.

This is all that matters.

https://x.com/zoomyzoomm/status/1952487878187249707

When your portfolio gets big enough you can just retire and withdraw cash on margin whilst staying fully long and never sell stocks (or incur taxes).

Billionaires do this all the time.

It’s possible for everyone with a few hundred thousand (although works better at scale).

https://twitter.com/boringbiz_/status/1948943965375320504

BTW

This strategy becomes increasingly more attractive as interest rates get closer to 0%, margin rates drop, CD/risk free rate drops, discount rate drops and equities rip higher

$BIDU has a current market cap of 30 billion.

$BIDU has net cash + investments of $28 billion.

In other words, you effectively get:
1. $BIDU core search biz
2. Apollo self-driving biz
3. $BIDU cloud

All for free. All upside. This might be the most asymmetric opportunity ever Let's say hypothetically the three biz's went to $0 overnight and they roll up the entire company tomorrow.

- They sell all the stakes in public companies @ market value over 6 months.
- They distribute net cash back to shareholders.

You effectively get your $$ back 1:1.

$PDD De minimis removal basically vaporized the fully managed model GMV $TEMU still cheaper than $AMZN even after factorign in De Minimis