Putin escalated his war today, announcing a partial mobilization of Russia’s reservists, and threatening Ukraine and its allies with atomic annihilation. At the very least, that’s an open admission that things have been going very badly for Russia. 1/20
politico.eu/article/putin-… Ukraine's successes on the battlefield have become undeniable - even for Margarita Simonyan, the head of Kremlin-directed RT media, who earlier this week admitted "mistakes were made." Talk about an understatement. 2

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1572017454657708039

Confused about what happened in Russiaworld on Tuesday? Here's my digest.
Russia’s proxies in Donbas region, the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, declared they would imminently hold referendums on being recognized as part of Russia. 1/13 Kremlin-installed officials in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region also indicated they planned to hold a referendum, with pro-Russian authorities in the Zaporizhzhia region indicating they would do the same. 2/13

Interesting mood music out of Kazakhstan, re relations with Russia in wake of war on Ukraine.
Astana has started detaining Russian trucks carrying sanctioned EU goods through its territory, Russia's state-run Izvestia reports today. 1/7 As a result of sanctions, trucks carrying European goods get to EU's border with Belarus, then transfer goods onto Belarusian or Russian vehicles for onward transport to places including Kazakhstan. (Russian/Belarus companies can't travel through EU.) 2/7

Big story on POLITICO this morning on Putin's microchip shopping list.

I was able to see a list of the spare parts Russia is hunting to replenish its arsenal, expended in its war on Ukraine.

The list shows Western firms control this chokepoint tech.

politico.eu/article/the-ch… What's the significance of this story?

Put simply, the items on the list must not be allowed to get into Russian hands.

We know Russia is in trouble when it comes to supplies of things like the 88E1322-AO-BAM2I000 gigabit ethernet transceiver made by Marvell ...

This "Russian" emigre is off. But might just pop a few stories here, so you can read through my catalogue for egs of Russo-centricity.

Here's a story on the people who joined the resistance in my home town of Chernivtsi (spoiler alert: it's in Ukraine)
politico.eu/article/ukrain… Here's the story that started it all, "Putin's miscalculation," written two days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.

politico.eu/article/ukrain…

Russian security services overnight raided the home of Marina Ovsyannikova, a former editor for state-run propagandist Channel One who denounced Russia's war on Ukraine during a live TV broadcast in March. Latest w/ @CamGijs
politico.eu/article/police… Ovsyannikova is now being taken to Russia's Investigative Committee, Zakhvatov said. (Think Russia's FBI.) The lawyer said a criminal case relating to charges of disseminating false info about Russian armed forces has been opened. The max sentence is 15 years in prison.

Today, leaders of EU's 27 countries meet in Brussels for a summit at which they'll endorse Ukraine's EU candidacy.

Which 100% wouldn't have happened if Putin hadn't launched his Feb 24 invasion of Ukraine ... seeking to cleave Kyiv off its Western path.
politico.eu/newsletter/bru… That's the good news for Ukraine. The not so good news? Candidate status is just 1st official step on road to EU membership — and the road will be long and tough, with no guarantee Ukraine makes it into the exclusive club — because existing EU members can veto new ones.

Interesting interview with Mikhail Khodorkovsky published today. He says West should've slapped tariffs on Russian oil instead of banning it, sending the tariff takings to Ukraine for weapons.
politico.eu/article/mikhai… “How much has the West lost in revenue by introducing all kinds of energy sanctions? $100B, $200B?" Khodorkovsky said. “Had Ukraine got at least $50B worth of weapons instead of $10B, the situation would be completely different now."

Photo of day courtesy of la Repubblica, of Macron, Scholz + Draghi on train from Polish border to Kyiv, where EU's big hitters will meet Zelenskyy. Today's Brussels Playbook outlines why this visit matters - and likely outcomes

politico.eu/newsletter/bru…

repubblica.it/esteri/2022/06… As @suzannelynch1 & @HankeVela write: Scholz and Macron have in the past said they would not travel to Kyiv merely for a photo-op. Senior officials both in Paris and Berlin said the leaders would only go to Kyiv if they had something important to announce and discuss.

In yesterday's interview, Angela Merkel argued Putin would have invaded Ukraine earlier if she hadn't blocked Ukraine’s NATO membership bid in 2008.

I'm skeptical, to say the least.

Let me unpack it for you. 1/16
politico.eu/article/merkel… First, some background. Back in April 2008, at a NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, NATO allies were deciding whether to provide Georgia and Ukraine with a Membership Action Plan, aka a MAP. A MAP is essentially the first step on the multi-year path to NATO membership. 2/

Last week, I interviewed Marina Ovsyannikova, the reporter who held up an anti-war sign on Russia's top rating Vremya news program on Channel One. It was a fascinating conversation. I, like many, wasn't sure what to make of the mysterious Marina O. 1/
politico.com/news/magazine/… Is she a dissident or a Kremlin stooge, I wondered. That, she said, was part of Kremlin's disinfo campaign against her. In Russia, it's very difficult to believe anything's genuine. The point of Putin’s propaganda machine — which Ovsyannikova helped build — is ambiguity & fear. 2

Putin and his propagandists say the Russians are de-Nazifying Ukraine, making false claims that fascists are running the country. I've spoken with many, many Ukrainian Jews over the past 2 months for their views, and wrote this report. Now, a thread ... 1/
politico.eu/article/in-the… I asked Jews who live in Ukraine what it's like for them today. Are they afraid of the Azovs and Banderovtsy?
For me, these questions are personal. My Ukrainian Jewish family fled the country in wake of collapse of USSR, when state-sanctioned anti-Semitism was rife. 2/

A thread on the significance of Viktor Medvedchuk's capture by Ukraine, announced last night. Medvedchuk, who is a close personal friend of Putin, fled house arrest after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, and had been in hiding since. 1/16
politico.eu/article/ukrain… First, a bit about Medvedchuk. He has long been among the loudest advocates for Russian interests in Ukraine, as the leader of the pro-Russia Opposition Platform - For Life party, which was biggest opposition force in the Rada (Ukrainian parliament) against Pres Zelenskyy. 2/16

You may have missed it over the weekend, so flagging this excellent story by @carlomartu on those helping Ukrainians under attack access vital meds. A few things didn't make it into story, so I thought I'd do a thread. Warning: it's heartbreaking. politico.eu/article/ukrain…
1/27 I gave Carlo a hand during his conversation with Oleksandr Diryavko, translating for them. I've spoken with so many ordinary Ukrainians doing extraordinary things during this war, but Diryavko's story really stuck with me. This is him, photo provided & used w/ permission. 2/

Latest Zelenskyy, recorded April 8. “The 44th day of our defense against the Russian invasion is coming to an end. The 44th, black day." Zelenskyy says. Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Kramatorsk railway station this morning. 38 people died on the spot. 1 Another 12 people died over the course of the day in hospital. We lost 5 children,” Zelenskyy says. Pauses to compose himself. “Dozens others who are heavily wounded remain in hospital." 2

RIA - Kremlin run media - writes that the dollar and euro have both fallen against the ruble. Lots of people talking about this - how the ruble's resurgence is proof sanctions aren't working. Don't fall for this Kremlin spin, read this story instead ...
politico.eu/article/how-ru… As @JohannaTreeck and @mateirosca report, the ruble is holding because of capital controls.

"You can break your windows. You can turn on the heating and then you can pretend that it’s summer outside,” says Latvia’s central bank chief. “The exchange rate is an imaginary number.”

Latest Zelenskyy is a corker. In Russian, he tells Russians to protest war, as it’s better to face off against repression than be labeled Nazis. He also takes aim at Western leaders who are blocking Russian oil embargo. Key moments ... 1/~35 Starts in Ukrainian: “It seems the world’s attitude to the modern Russian state is finally changing. After what the world saw in Bucha when Russian troops retreated, the attitude to all in Russia will be simple: Either you support peace, or you back unjustified massacres." 2/

A thread to illustrate what life was like on the ground during late 80s & 90s in Ukraine, at the tail end of the USSR, after decades of isolation. My family was solidly middle class. Both parents had good jobs (mum taught piano, dad was programmer). One grandma was doctor. 1/ Another grandma worked in bank. Grandpa was economist. Other grandpa did odd jobs. Despite this, and a Soviet system where salaries were pre-set and housing was supposed to be provided by state, everyday life was tough. 2/

Latest Zelenskyy address from last night. It's powerful, and it should be devastating for some in West to hear. In it, he switches between Ukrainian and Russian to deliver a message in response to the war crimes in Bucha. What follows is graphic. Here are main points...
1/ “Today’s address will begin without greetings,” Zelenskyy begins in Ukrainian. “I don't want to use extra words. Presidents don’t normally record addresses like this. But today I must, after what was revealed in Bucha and in our other cities the occupiers were pushed out of." 2/

Zelenskyy about to address Australian parliament. I'll do a thread. First, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announces ahead of the speech that Australia will send more tactical decoys, unmanned and manned aerial systems, rations and technical supplies. Opposition leader Anthony Albanese gives brief address. Raises Zelenskyy's background, with his family a victim of the Holocaust. (The Ukrainian president has said that three of his grandfather’s brothers were killed in the Holocaust).

Dedovshchina has been widespread in Russian forces since the Soviet period. What is it? It’s the most brutal form of hazing you can imagine. Simply put, it’s the torture of junior members of the armed forces by those above them on the food chain. I’ve heard stories about it first hand from family and friends who have been conscripted. Conscripts are raped, beaten, suffer sleep deprivation, are forced to lick floors and toilets, to eat excrement, to torture others.