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"These are some of the most important clinical trials in history, affecting a vast majority of the planet’s population. It’s hard to imagine how much higher the stakes can be to get this right. Cutting corners should not be an option." 1/
nytimes.com/2020/09/22/opi…
@nytopinion
The primary endpoint in these trials— infections—will likely be mostly mild. For example, in the @pfizer trial, a sore throat and a + PCR test counts as an event. Are these the infections that we want to suppress with a vaccine? Is that a good proxy of effectiveness? 2/
There are interim analyses, some w/ stopping rules during the trials
—4 looks for Pfizer, 1st is at 32 events
—2 looks for Moderna, 1 look in Astra Zeneca (US) trial
—A trial could be stopped on the basis of very limited number and severity of such events, declaring efficacy 3/
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