Thread by @EdamDefense

(1) Russia’s political design for Syria needs to promote the Syrian Arab Armed Forces (SAAF) as a strong pivot to rely on during the forthcoming political process. #Nimr, #TigerForces #SuheilalHassan #Syria #SAA

(2) In case the current paramilitary landscape of the civil war-torn country becomes more prevalent and permanent, it would be Tehran, not Moscow, that will be the dominant force in Syria in the long-term. #Nimr #TigerForces #SuheilalHassan #Syria #SAA

(3) Moscow will try to transform the SAAF into a magnet to rein in paramilitary formations. This ambitious goal requires energetic leadership, charisma in the eyes of the Alawite-dominant officer corps, and pro-Russian attitude. #Nimr #TigerForces #SuheilalHassan #Syria #SAA

(4)Defense Minister General Ali Abdullah Ayoub, one of the embodied figures of the Baath regime and a veteran in his late 60s, is not suitable for this role. Russia would probably encourage and support General Suheil al-Hassan for executing a forcible reshuffle at the right time

(5) This change should not necessarily seem like a takeover at first glance. The world could read pro-regime outlets congratulating General Suheil al-Hassan for his new role as the chief of the Syrian Arab Army, or even defense minister. #Syria #SAA #Nimr #Tigerforces

(6) At present (late October – early November 2018), General al-Hassan’s units are mostly stationed around Abu Duhur Air Base, close to Idlib. The Tiger Forces are away from the capital Damascus, and in the short term, a takeover does not seem possible. #Syria #Tigerforces #SAA

(7) However, as the situation in Idlib unfolds, any changes in the Tiger Forces’ deployment patterns should be carefully monitored. Read more details on edam.org.tr/en/syrias-shog… #Syria #Nimr #TigerForces #SuheilAlHassan #SAA