Thread by @ShachiKurl

Well, Lots of buzz about our latest @angusreidorg poll on federal vote intention. Much to unpack so follow along as I do that. Or just read the full report here: angusreid.org/federal-politi… #cdnpoli

So here's where the Canadian electorate stood in the last days of April, when asked how they'd vote if an election were held tomorrow:

What's been happening? Well, since the beginning of the year, (including, yes, the SNC mess) the @NDP & @CanadianGreens have made gains, @CPC_HQ is basically stalled. The @liberal_party .... sinking

Basically, many members of what was the Stop Harper coalition that rallied under the big red banner and #PMJT in 2015 are now annoyed with said PM, and seeking progressive alternatives. Look at the Liberals' vote retention:

Here's a reason why the current Conservative lead is ominous for the Liberals. Right now - the CPC leads everywhere but QC:

That said, age and gender demographics clearly indicate the CPC has a lot of work to do with millennial and Gen-X women:

Party preference by age has a lot to do with the national issues people in different walks of life put at the top of their list. The environment is most important to younger voters, health care most important to boomers+

Leadership is also a big thing. When asked who would make best PM, the most frequent answer is often "not sure". Not this time. Andrew Scheer has opened a lead on this question:

That said, there's only one national party leader whose approval levels are higher than their disapproval levels - and that's the Greens' Elizabeth May

Let's talk some more about leadership. A lot of people are asking me, is it curtains for the PM? Well, history can be instructive. Check out the approval trendlines for Harper and Trudeau, both 3+ years after 1st election...

OTOH, look at where Trudeau sits now relative to the last FOUR PMs about the same time after their first elections. As they used to say on Happy Days... not so good, Al.

The PM who once had gravity-defying approval numbers now sees his disapproval numbers even higher. The speed at which this has happened is breathtaking

So what happens? Does the left pull together under a leader and party again? Or do they split the vote and hand the Conservatives a victory? Check out vote certainty by party & how much flexibility among Lib/NDP voters... it's going to come down to what they decide to do

As always - thanks for following along. Again, you can read the full report, and check out all the detailed data tables here: angusreid.org/federal-politi…. @angusreidorg is a non-profit institute. We self commissioned this poll.