So here's where the Canadian electorate stood in the last days of April, when asked how they'd vote if an election were held tomorrow:
What's been happening? Well, since the beginning of the year, (including, yes, the SNC mess) the @NDP & @CanadianGreens have made gains, @CPC_HQ is basically stalled. The @liberal_party .... sinking
Basically, many members of what was the Stop Harper coalition that rallied under the big red banner and #PMJT in 2015 are now annoyed with said PM, and seeking progressive alternatives. Look at the Liberals' vote retention:
Here's a reason why the current Conservative lead is ominous for the Liberals. Right now - the CPC leads everywhere but QC:
That said, age and gender demographics clearly indicate the CPC has a lot of work to do with millennial and Gen-X women:
Party preference by age has a lot to do with the national issues people in different walks of life put at the top of their list. The environment is most important to younger voters, health care most important to boomers+
Leadership is also a big thing. When asked who would make best PM, the most frequent answer is often "not sure". Not this time. Andrew Scheer has opened a lead on this question:
That said, there's only one national party leader whose approval levels are higher than their disapproval levels - and that's the Greens' Elizabeth May
Let's talk some more about leadership. A lot of people are asking me, is it curtains for the PM? Well, history can be instructive. Check out the approval trendlines for Harper and Trudeau, both 3+ years after 1st election...
OTOH, look at where Trudeau sits now relative to the last FOUR PMs about the same time after their first elections. As they used to say on Happy Days... not so good, Al.
The PM who once had gravity-defying approval numbers now sees his disapproval numbers even higher. The speed at which this has happened is breathtaking
So what happens? Does the left pull together under a leader and party again? Or do they split the vote and hand the Conservatives a victory? Check out vote certainty by party & how much flexibility among Lib/NDP voters... it's going to come down to what they decide to do
As always - thanks for following along. Again, you can read the full report, and check out all the detailed data tables here: angusreid.org/federal-politi…. @angusreidorg is a non-profit institute. We self commissioned this poll.
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Hello. Today, June 23, is commemorated as National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Terrorism. How many Canadians know why? The answer, very sadly, is very few. But I'm going to make a thread about this that I hope will be informative ... I invite you to follow along. #airindia
Last year, I mused out loud in this op-ed for @ottawacitizen about how many Canadians would know why June 23 is important in our history....ottawacitizen.com/opinion/column…
As a pollster, I am uniquely positioned to ask Canadians. So I decided to find out.
Hi. This is the National Day of Remembrance of Victims of Terrorism. I must remember next year to poll on what Canadians think originated this day.
A thread ... I invite you to follow along.
If I was guessing, I'd guess significant numbers of people in this country think the worst incident of terrorism perpetrated on Canadian citizens was 9/11. Others might think of the Nova Scotia shootings, the attack on Parliament Hill, or something else.
It was in fact, the bombings of Air India Flight 182 (and the coordinated bombing of a CP jetliner in Tokyo). These attacks killed 331 people.
First, here's more info about how to access and watch:
Lots of conscientious planning + work goes into producing these debates. I'm the public face of it, but seasoned, smart, passionate BC political journalists are doing a lot of heavy lifting. This amazing team will be come together to discuss & decide on the q's leaders will face.
Hey Hey Happy Wednesday everyone. We've been working hard at @angusreidorg and can show you our latest federal vote intention numbers. Follow along as I walk you through them.
To begin, you can read the full report, download detailed tables, read up on methodology and fielding dates here: angusreid.org/federal-politi…
This was a survey of more than 5000 Cdns coast to coast so we can look at lots of different data cuts, (& we will) but here's the main story: 3 weeks from a Throne Speech & possible election, @liberal_party & @CPC_HQ are tied in voter intention among decided voters: #cdnpoli
Secondly, it's time for my usual disclaimer. Yes, PEI we ❤️you. Yes, you are DEFINITELY a part of Canada. No we didn't forget you. No, we can't include your premier due to small sample sizes based on small population. Same as we can't include territorial leaders for that reason.