Thread by @bulamabukarti

@CrisisGroup's new report gives insights into the threat #ISWAP posses to the #LakeChad. It adds to our knowledge of the group's strategy and tactics.

It shows how #ISWAP uses not targeting civilians and providing basic services to win local support.

crisisgroup.org/africa/west-af…

2. The report lends credence to a piece I wrote 12 months ago: institute.global/insight/co-exi…. In the article entitled "The Battle for Hearts and Minds in the Lake Chad Basin", I submitted that #ISWAP is playing a dangerous long game to win the backing of local people and argued that:

3. "Nigeria cannot afford to use sticks with locals while the extremists offer carrots. This approach will be very dangerous in the long run. Abuja and its local and international partners must take action to provide local populations with basic amenities. . ." and that:

4. "Authorities must step up their offensive against ISWAP to ward off its sinister motives. The military should make efforts to establish and secure a presence in the remotest areas of the affected countries to deny the extremists the opportunity to grow and flourish."

5. Furthermore, @rachel_e_bryson and I expanded on this trend in our "Boko Haram's Split On Women in Combat": institute.global/insight/co-exi… in which we point out that "... Shekau may be causing more devastation in the short term, but Barnawi is building support in local communities.

6. His is a long-term strategy. Barnawi’s faction acts as a defender against Shekau and government forces, administering some territories. . . they advocate targeted violence against the state and Christians."

@CrisisGroup's vindicates us and that, sadly, #ISWAP is succeeding.