Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ISWAP

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#ISWAP elements reportedly stormed the #Bargaram market in the Hile Alifa subdivision this 6 September 2019 at about 11 am. The insurgents reportedly fired gun shots in the air for a while before leaving. No body was hurt in the shooting. #SembeTv #Cameroon
Suite à l'arrestation par les gendarmes, d'un jeune du village prouvé complice, des combattants d'#ISWAP le jour du marché hebdomadaire de Bargaram le vendredi dernier(30/08/2019), ce 6 Septembre 2019 aux environs de 11h30, pendant que les populations sont en plein marché...
...environ 40 combattants d'#ISWAP armés ont fait irruption au marché de Bargaram à la recherche des gendarmes, heureusement ils n'ont trouvé aucun homme en tenue, et se sont mis à tirer en l'air, créant ainsi de la panique et il y a eu une débandade totale dans le marché.
Read 4 tweets
Relative calm has been oberved in the Logone and Chari Division of #Cameroon for the past two weeks. No #ISWAP attack recorded but #insurgents have been spotted in #markets of #Tchika, #Bargaram and Goteral Goutoun buying supplies. #SembeTv
Local sources say that the #ISWAP militants seen in #markets often come in civilian wear and harm no one. They interact and buy like normal people.
The calm recorded in this zone could be due to the heavy rains which make circulation difficult.
Read 3 tweets
Clearly the NIgerian Army hasn’t made any improvements in the design of base defenses since the resurgence of #ISWAP attacks last summer. Likely a reflection of the NA’s infatuation with maneouverist doctrine—something largely antithetical to what’s needed for #COIN ops. 1/
Since the overrun of FOBs at Jili, Zari & others, why are defensive perimeters still in a circle with no final defensive fire line from crew-served wpns? Where are the OPs? Watchtowers? Bunkers? Why isn’t foliage burnt/cut to provide clear fields of fire & observation to 1km? 2/
The NA adopted the idea of ditches in 2018 to stop insurgents from advancing on their positions. Unfortunately, the berms ended up providing frontal cover and gave insurgents a close in support by fire position enabling them to get close to the NA perimeter with impunity. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Hearing a fascinating account of #ISWAP operations in the area of the Komadugu-Yobe... a few weeks back, a Kanuri village on the Nigerian side of the river was attacked by Fulani herders. @Pastoralist1 @alouibrahim92 @FulanNasrullah @jhjezequel
Subsequently, since the Nigerian state was not providing security, dozens of young men from that village decided to join #ISWAP, to get protection. In Nigeria as elsewhere, chaos and state weakness are opportunities for jihadi governance projects.
This (specific) case goes against the general idea of a systematic Fulani/Jihadi association, which a number of people cling to in Nigeria and elsewhere. Local configurations are key.
Read 4 tweets
Attaque #BokoHaram ce jour a #Zelevet dans le Mayo Tsanaga. Les assailants dont certains armés et en uniforme militaries on attaqué le marché sur les motos. #Cameroun #SembeTv #ISWAP
Les #terroristes on eté repoussé grace a l'intervention rapide de l'armée. #SembeTv #BokoHaram #Cameroon #Cameroun
Bilan provisoire : 02 villageois legerement blessés, 02 motos abandonnés par les #terroristes pendant leur fuite vers le Nigeria. #BokoHaram #ISWAP #Cameroon #Cameroun #SembeTv
Read 4 tweets
The three major groups in Nigeria #BokoHaram (Shekau's JAS), #ISWAP and #Ansaru had their most active week of media releases this week. In addition to the highlight of their contents, I will also share my thoughts on where I think this decade-old insurgency is heading.

#Thread
1. Let me start with highlights from #BokoHaram Shekau's JAS. JAS acknowledged the Death of Man Chari Abū Sadīq al-Bāmāwī. He was the commander that issued the first protest against the deposition of Shekau by ISIS. He led the group as a commander & Imam. See Text 73 of BH Reader
2. Despite JAS schism with #ISWAP, the group still sees itself as part of ISIS which explains why the speeches of ISIS leaders (Adnani & Zarqawi) were frequently invoked in all their releases. #Ansaru is the only group in Nigeria as of now that make references to Al-Qaeda.
Read 17 tweets
The new Crisis Group report on #ISWAP "Facing the Challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa Province" is comprehensive and well-researched but there are important analytical gaps overlooked in the report.
#Thread

crisisgroup.org/africa/west-af… via @crisisgroup
According to the report, the success of #ISWAP's Jihadist Proto-State or the symbiotic relationship between the group and the inhabitants of the Lake Chad Area is hinged upon the Governance and Public Good ISWAP delivers to the local communities. This claim is reductionist.
The local communities do not accept ISWAP simply because they dig wells, police rustling, provide healthcare, and discipline its members. Rather, they accept to live under ISWAP because of their belief in the obligation of living under 'DAR AL-ISLAM' not DAR AL-KUFR (Nigeria).
Read 10 tweets
Just In: Credible information reaching me now says, a faction(s) has emerged within #ISWAP. What is not, however, clear at this time is, which of the factions will receive the backing of #IS central and also claim the bulk of the fighting force within the group.
Interestingly, Abu Musab was the person that announced his own sack in an audio recording. Did he make the announcement under duress? Why haven't #IS central said anything yet about the leadership crisis in one of its most active Wilayat?
The coming weeks will definitely define the future of insurgency in the #LakeChad region and the wider implications for peace and security in #WestAfrica and the #Sahel region. Stay with me.
Read 3 tweets
When @A_Salkida reported the leadership change in #ISWAP on March 4th, albeit the skepticism attributed to the report, I was CERTAIN the report was TRUE because of Salkida's antecedents. #ISWAP has released the audio in Hausa from their encrypted channel. Here is the translation
The 6 minutes 16 seconds audio translated below was released by #ISWAP. Abu Abdulla Idris can be confirmed as the same figure Mamman Nur mentioned in August 2016 as "Ba Idrissa who queried Shekau's flawed interpretation of Quranic exegesis" See Text 72 of The Boko Haram Reader.
[Islamic Introduction, Quranic&Hadith citations on Obedience to a Caliph]

"I am announcing to my mujahideen brothers, commanders, and leaders in the Islamic State West African Province that the commander of the believers has deposed Abū Musʿab al-Barnāwī as the Governor.
Read 13 tweets
@A_Salkida reported the appointment of Abu Abdullah Idrissa as the new Wali of #ISWAP and the relegation of Abu Mus`ab as Shura member. Observers have remained puzzled over the ideological implication of the change. Will the new leadership go the Nur's way or "more Takfiri" way?
1. Nur's way of jihadi revisionism is the last batch of intervention from the old cadres of the group who felt they have departed from their initial ideological program. The circumstances surrounding Nur's death suggest that the new leader will not follow the placatory approach.
2. It is unlikely that Abu Abdullah Idrissa will merge with Shekau. Although both ISWAP and JAS have shown that they can temporarily halt their hostility and fight against their "Greater Enemy", they are yet to resolve their ideological differences on "العذر بالجهل وقيام الحجة".
Read 10 tweets
1/ A carelessly incurred fine, effectively ignoring a surging ISWAP, the CCB’s sudden impotence, and a judicial bailout for an under fire ruling party, Nigeria has become the land where the unnecessary is king.
2/ The drama between @MobilePunch and @CCBNigeria represents the latest indication of the current administration’s selective commitment to the rule of law.
3/ The irony of @CCBNigeria who responded to a letter against CJN #Onnoghen - an official who is no favourite of @MBuhari - in a matter of hours while ignoring a legal request for information that could potentially tar @AsoRock’s leading lights is inescapable.
Read 20 tweets
(THREAD) #Nigeria: In this thread I will be posting all #ISWAP attack claims and everything connected to Nigerian Army's fight against the terrorists in northeastern part of the country. It will be better to have everything in one place. Stay tuned.
Here is part of my work about #ISIS in December. The number of ISWAP attacks reported by their media has doubled compared to November:
The map of #ISWAP control in Borno. The situation has changed since - Baga, Cross Kauwa and Kukawa have been recaptured by Nigerian Army:
Read 507 tweets
1/ The country’s profile got bleaker this week for a host of reasons - impetuous regulatory behaviour, refugees left out in the cold, a needless rise in public recurrent spending and an unshackled rogue police squad.
2/ Nothing illustrates #Nigeria’s dysfunction as much as the minimum wage palaver. The ₦27,000 ($75) or even ₦30,000 ($83) is not much – those that earn it will hover around the poverty line.
3/ The issue is that even such a wage is beyond the capacity of @AsoRock to pay, and for many small businesses as well, this will represent a massive upswing in cost. There is a disconnect between value creation by the workforce, and how much they earn.
Read 24 tweets
Nigerians in currently in serious contact with #ISWAP in Rann NE Nigeria. Battle began an hour ago
The Insurgents Monday night broke the Nigerian forces defenses in a stealth & precision attack, got to the town center and IDP camp.
The Nigerian ground and air forces are currently engaging the insurgents
Monday satellite and Drone images of the battle space Rann seen by us points to very poor situational awareness of the battalion and other security services on ground.
Read 4 tweets
#ISWAP eyes, perhaps set on Maiduguri, as this night attack by the group is ongoing in Auno, barely 24 kilometres to the city. The Nigerian Airforce is currently providing air support to ground troops.
Reports coming in from Auno indicate that #ISWAP fighters were pushed back after they suffered heavy casualties from the #Nigeriantroops, but the group’s capacity to carry out daily attacks on military targets across the region call for serious concern.
Each attack comes with new displacements into #Maiduguri. The new arrivals from Auno to the inundated city of Maiduguri said both the #Nigeriantroops and #ISWAP suffered casualties, just before they fled. #Tragic
Read 3 tweets
Just In: Nigerian Army in fierce battle with #ISWAP fighters as at 9:45pm in Damasak, the same location where a military helicopter crashed, killing all officers on board. As expected, #ISWAP attack the same location repeatedly, this has been the pattern of most attacks.
Update: Multiple sources said #Nigeriantroops successfully repelled an #ISWAP attack last night, killing scores of the attackers and burning down at least 5 of their trucks. ISWAP, curiously, has not issued a statement, apparently because they suffered defeat.
Update on Damasak: #ISWAP claimed in its bulletin released moments ago that, “more than 20 apostates (Nigerian Soldiers) were killed as a result of attack and IED blasts in Borno.”
Read 3 tweets
Nigerian Air Force strike in Seyoram against alleged BH targets as part of OP Lafiya Doyle with NAF Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). Location: @wikimapia (wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=1…). Video of strike: #Nigeria
BH Tech also seen destroyed in OP Lafiya Doyle video by NAF 11km SW of Baga along Kukawa Kauwa Border Rd (goo.gl/maps/gXG4nxf5G…). h/t to @africaken1 for ID of possible Nigeria Army-owned BM-21 GRAD MRLS 👇()
Surveillance footage shows NAF strikes on alleged ISWAP fighters at former fishing village in Doro Gowon fishing area, east Borno. Geolocated here: goo.gl/maps/KJGYaJUmu…. Note: attack was 4.5km N of Baga, which was attacked by militants on 27/12 reuters.com/article/us-nig…
Read 9 tweets
2018 began with some trepidation as #Nigeria's economy failed to take off, and familiar sounds of discontent began to surface.

In the political space, questions mounted about whether the coalition that brought @MBuhari to power 3 years earlier would hold firm.

It didn't.
Meanwhile, the year, 2018, would go down as the year when @AsoRock's claims about having a lid on security issues were revealed to be mostly empty.
The year began with an escalation of #PastoralConflict, with tit-for-tat killings across 5 states, and a tepid reaction from @AsoRock.

This culminated in the unsightly scenario of one of #Nigeria's most prominent citizens asking his tribesmen to defend themselves.
Read 25 tweets
The Nigerian government has shown unwillingness to use hindsight for the benefit of foresight to address the #BokoHaram/#ISWAP conflict. At every stop the insurgents seem more determined to kill than the government's determination to stop the killings.
The insurgents are no longer faceless as the previous Govt often said, their origins, locations and plans are known in the region. The civilian population of BH/ISWAP is more than the combatants. Therefore, Non military intervention is equally important as a military campaign.
Non military intervention does not mean dialogue with the insurgents, the prospects of a peace settlement in the #LakeChad is near impossible, at this stage. It is Nigerian govt that must dialogue with itself, to bring all its institutions to speed to complement the military.
Read 5 tweets
At University of Sussex, I studied all Irregular Warfares in the 20th and 21st century, and I’d like to share a few insights from other Irregular Warfares on why I think Nigeria will not win the war against Boko Haram in the next 20 years. THE THREAD
Nigeria’s broad counterinsurgency (COIN) plan is to outkill Boko Haram. This is simplistic use of brute force. Military spendings from 2011 to 2015 shows that Nigeria spent $16.382 billion on defence, but made little progress against Boko Haram.
In fact, when military spendings were plotted against number of Boko Haram inflicted death, I found that the more we spent, the more deaths we recorded. The more we spent, the more Boko Haram progressed.
Read 20 tweets
Is the military carrying out reprisal attacks, last Friday, village traders in Kasuwan Gamma in Magumeri LGA claimed that soldiers burnt down a market with everything in it, because #BokoHaram also make use of the market, said a local vigilante. This shld be further investigated.
According to the Vigilante, the villagers are distressed by the loss of their valuables, as it is their sole means of livelihood. Many villagers are, increasingly, avoiding coming between the military and BH, as they are invariably at the receiving end, said the Vigilante.
At a time like this, military/civilian relations should be at its best, not lowest, the military can't afford to lose local support, at a time #ISWAP is reportedly supporting poor communities to win them over. The military must not lose the non combat aspect of this war.
Read 3 tweets
Apologies, quite busy.
Briefly; A large number of X-rays with superior firepower launched simultaneous attacks on Nigerian Army encampments in Maitele & Mainok Sunday night. The units BTR2 & T72s were not operational. Force protection was poor, no patrols to dominate the area &
dirt-parts, units low on supplies, tactical comms with reinforcements teams was poor which led to multiple ambush by #ISWAP of these teams, no Air support/ Arty support.
Over a hundred soldiers unaccounted for out of 370+.
This is the 2nd worse casualty nos after the July 14 #ISWAP attack at Nigerian Army FoB in at Kiki where I mentioned over 200 Soldiers died in one fell swoop.

5 APC's/Tanks with several Guntrucks & equipments were looted.
Read 6 tweets
#ISWAP in Al-Naba news confirmed that it carried out attacks on a military base in Metele, on 18th and a second one on 19th/20th, when the military went to collect the fallen comrades. In all, the terror group claimed to have killed 100 soldiers.

THREAD
What is most alarming is, #IS weekly infographic on its operations (persons killed and injured etc.) in Al-Naba weekly magazine in Arabic. The week of 15 to 21st November, #ISWAP was clearly the 1st in the world in all of #IS Wilaya for the number of dead and wounded.
On the infographic 2nd is Iraq, 3rd is Sham, 4th is Khorasan, 5th, East Asia, 6th is Sinai. The rating varies, depending on the attacks in the week. But it is now clear that ISWAP has a growing strategic partnership beyond media collaboration with #ISIS. Are we still in doubt?
Read 5 tweets

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