Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #LakeChad

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As #COP27 begins, we bring you #VoicesOfAfrica from climate activists in frontline communities across the continent. Start with @lizwathuti founder of @GGI_Kenya – "Justice is not forcing countries into deeper debt by climate disasters they did not cause"…
"Countries in the African region are least responsible for causing the climate crisis but are among the most vulnerable to its impacts" – @AbigaelKima on witnessing the devastating drought in Kenya ⬇️… #COP27 #VoicesOfAfrica
🟢"We need to listen to the science," writes @the_ecofeminist, founder of @LeadClimate, "and not the big polluters who want to influence the outcomes of the conference to suit their selfish agenda" 🟢… #COP27 #VoicesOfAfrica #LakeChad
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Is there a threat that Abuja is facing?
Has there ever been any threat?
Is the recent threat different from past ones?
How is it different?
Today's ISWAP has an expansionist agenda, not limited to their fixation on territorial control in the #LakeChad basin
Today's ISWAP had far more sophistication than #BokoHaram did pre-2015 when Abuja came under attack.
#ISWAP has global networks; the goal is no longer limited to local targets but also international interests. That's why the diplomatic community in Abuja is on overdrive
However, the alertness and preparedness of security agencies within Abuja today are greater than in the pre-2015 era. But don't get me wrong, we will all be fooling ourselves if we think Abuja will be spared from the insecurity spreading like wildfire across the country.
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Helping #Somalia-"We get it by, with & through" partnerships, LtGen Michael Langley, nominated to lead @USAfricaCommand, tells SASC

"It's the best thing that will thwart the great power competition that's coming w/these false value propositions" from #Russia, #China
US working w/#Africa|n countries to help them establish maritime exclusion zones - "That's going to be the biggest deterrent, or assurance actions... that's going to deter #China from trying to take over the West Coast of the African continent" per LtGen Langley
"#AFRICOM needs more resources, not less" per SASC Ranking Member @JimInhofe, saying he's heard rumors support to @USAfricaCommand is going to be downgraded
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Significance Of September 6: From Nigerian Army Declaring Me Wanted To Shaping HumAngle

On Sept. 6, five years ago, I landed in Abuja on an Emirates flight from the UAE after the Nigerian Army declared me a wanted man on Aug. 14, 2016. I heard the news on Al Jazeera before I began to receive calls from friends and family.
I was very shocked because I had a chat with the COAS less than 2wks before the embarrassing declaration by the Army under his leadership. According to the Army spokesman at the time, my crime was that I knew where the #ChibokGirls were and refused to share their location.
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My article via @nextbluestories:
The direct ties between the nature of #LakeChad & democratic stability in the region show the extent to which environmental rights are indispensable in our contemporary democracy.…
As a result, if nature is left out of our democratic agenda, women & girls will suffer the most. In West - Central Africa, women & girls produce 60 to 80% of the food & work an average of 20 hours per week to get water & biomass for their households yet still have little rights.. own land. In #Sahel, there are more than 20 million child brides due to the vast degradation of a landscape that 80 percent of the population depend upon for livelihood. Similarly, in the #LakeChad region, there are more than 10.7million people displaced...
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NEW: Just released @UN report warns of "heightened threats emerging" from #ISIS #alQaida affiliated groups worldwide

"This is especially true in parts of West and East #Africa" per the report, based on member state intelligence
In West/East #Africa, affiliates of #ISIS #alQaida "can boast gains in supporters and territory under threat, as well as growing capabilities in fundraising & weapons, for example, in the use of drones" per the @UN report
#ISIS in #Syria "has evolved into an entrenched insurgency, exploiting weaknesses in local security to find safe havens & targeting forces engaged in counter-ISIL operations" per the @UN report
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Official report for the 13 - 19 September indicates that #BokoHaram operated in three of the four countries in the #LakeChad: Cameroon, Chad and Nigeria, with an unprecedented negative development on the Cameroon side and the most fatal attack in Nigeria.

On 16 Sep, ISWAP reportedly raised its black & white flag, the insignia of ISIS, in Kamouna located about 2km from Bargaram in the borough of Hile-Alifa. This is the 1st time IS Flag has been seen in Cameroonian territory although regional authorities have denied the report.

On the Nigerian side, on 15 Sep, about 20 ISWAP fighters aboard 3 gun trucks, armed with AK47s, RPGs, and anti-aircraft weapons, ambushed troops returning to the town of Monguno on Nganzai road. 4 soldiers were killed and 3 abducted. The militants escaped with seven AK47s.

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One of the major dangers of living and traveling around the #LakeChad region, according a UN official I chatted to in Chad, is widespread landmines. He showed me pictures of a landmine attack that killed a security official and seriously damaged a vehicle in the entourage...

...of the Chef De Canton (traditional ruler) of Kaiga Kindjiria a week before I arrived. He said they feel very unsafe working/driving in the area.

If UN officials feel unsafe, what of locals? On my way to Bagasola, I passed by many communities that are totally unprotected.

People live in houses made of cornstalk (zaana) that is threatened by wind! They can’t afford mud. There is no any barrier or security presence around them. You can feel their vulnerability! No wonder, #BokoHaram continues to kill people like mosquitoes.

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Visiting the #LakeChad region of Chad including Bol and Bagasola, I found that what we hear about BH’s attacks in the media is just the tip of the iceberg. Eg, on ground UN situation report I got there shows that there were 4 different attacks in the 1st 4 days of Sep alone!

And that’s in Chad alone! The attacks in villages near Bagasola and Kaiga Kindjiria killed 5 soldiers, 2 civilians and injured scores. None of these got to the press. I believe there are similar unreported attacks in the other countries affected by BH especially Nigeria.

There might be two reasons why these incidents go unreported:

1. Govts want to portray a sign of (false) normalcy to promote their long-countered theory that BH has been defeated.

2. Media houses don’t have reps in the remotest parts of the #LakeChad that bears the brunt.

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Being by #LakeChad yesterday was both physically and emotionally rewarding. The beautiful sight of the lake fills one with happiness and tranquility. Its serene air is cooling and refreshing. Its soothing natural music is calming. Water is indeed a natural elixir.

1 ImageImage
By the side are happy children washing their clothes and playing. Men and women (in different groups) resting under trees, chatting, relaxing. A small commercial boat loads about six passengers, collects their fares and gradually sails. Everything felt SO natural.

Life away from the disruption of politics & technology and the brutality of modernity. Residents aren’t perturbed by absence of government for they don’t even know what it’s supposed to mean. Their only ask is: Peace from #BokoHaram. That, I think, is not asking too much.

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Flash: Abubakar Shekau Reads BH ideology, Recites Nigeria's National Pledge in New Video.

The embattled leader of Jama'atu Ahlil-Sunnah Lid-Da'awati Wal-Jihad, otherwise known as Boko Haram appeared in a video robed in flowing white apparels whilst clutching an AK47 rifle ...
as he read a prepared speech in Arabic about the doctrines of Boko Haram. The factional leader of Boko Haram that have been weakened by an internal feud that led to the emergence of another faction in 2016 and persistent military campaign by the @NigerianArmy and the MNJTF ...
appeared to have impaired eyesight as he struggled to read his group's ideology in Arabic, while intermittently reciting Nigeria's National pledge in English, which he repeatedly said was an act of Shirk.
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The three major groups in Nigeria #BokoHaram (Shekau's JAS), #ISWAP and #Ansaru had their most active week of media releases this week. In addition to the highlight of their contents, I will also share my thoughts on where I think this decade-old insurgency is heading.

1. Let me start with highlights from #BokoHaram Shekau's JAS. JAS acknowledged the Death of Man Chari Abū Sadīq al-Bāmāwī. He was the commander that issued the first protest against the deposition of Shekau by ISIS. He led the group as a commander & Imam. See Text 73 of BH Reader
2. Despite JAS schism with #ISWAP, the group still sees itself as part of ISIS which explains why the speeches of ISIS leaders (Adnani & Zarqawi) were frequently invoked in all their releases. #Ansaru is the only group in Nigeria as of now that make references to Al-Qaeda.
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This troubling.

According this report by @CrisisGroup, #ISWAP is providing locals in areas it controls with services our federal and state governments have failed to provide cities, town and villages all over the country.…

1. The group provides security to local people including fighting banditry and cattle rustling.

2. It provides judicial services through settling farmer-herder disputes, allocating grazing lands and adjudication.

3. It constructs infrastructure including latrines.

4. It provides education (Islamic) and heath care including procuring medicine and organising the transfer of seriously ill patients to hospitals.

5. It encourages economic development by reviving rural trade and giving micro-loans to local youth and farmers.

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@CrisisGroup's new report gives insights into the threat #ISWAP posses to the #LakeChad. It adds to our knowledge of the group's strategy and tactics.

It shows how #ISWAP uses not targeting civilians and providing basic services to win local support.…
2. The report lends credence to a piece I wrote 12 months ago:…. In the article entitled "The Battle for Hearts and Minds in the Lake Chad Basin", I submitted that #ISWAP is playing a dangerous long game to win the backing of local people and argued that:
3. "Nigeria cannot afford to use sticks with locals while the extremists offer carrots. This approach will be very dangerous in the long run. Abuja and its local and international partners must take action to provide local populations with basic amenities. . ." and that:
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Just In: Credible information reaching me now says, a faction(s) has emerged within #ISWAP. What is not, however, clear at this time is, which of the factions will receive the backing of #IS central and also claim the bulk of the fighting force within the group.
Interestingly, Abu Musab was the person that announced his own sack in an audio recording. Did he make the announcement under duress? Why haven't #IS central said anything yet about the leadership crisis in one of its most active Wilayat?
The coming weeks will definitely define the future of insurgency in the #LakeChad region and the wider implications for peace and security in #WestAfrica and the #Sahel region. Stay with me.
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This is why and how #ClimateChange and war make an explosive mix in the #Sahel and #LakeChad.
For millions in Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon & Burkina war is a dreadful reality of life. And, as if that’s not enough, comes #ClimateChange, exacerbating tensions between communities, deepening poverty & inequalities, weakening & disrupting people’s means of survival
Temperatures in the #Sahel are rising 1,5 times faster than the global average. Rains are erratic, and rainy seasons shorter. @UN estimates that roughly 80% of the Sahel's farmland is degraded even as roughly 50 million people in the Sahel who depend on livestock compete for land
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In 2011, at a time #BokoHaram assassinates people that criticize them, as a reporter based in Maiduguri then, I penned a scathing article on the Islamic Faith of Boko Haram. I was asked to leave town, but I stayed back.
In this 2012 report I asked, how does operating and living in denial of the existence of a nightmare help society or advance national security? Sadly, not much has changed since then. #LakeChad
In 2015 I argued in this report that ‘Regional military cooperation must improve to defeat #BokoHaram.’ Four years later, we’ve not seen the leadership that unified the countries in the #LakeChad region working towards a common military target & objective.
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At the ongoing #ASP2018, @FatuBensouda, Prosecutor of @IntlCrimCourt just released the rpt on Preliminary Examinations (PE), which addresses many countries, including #Nigeria.
In her Preliminary Examination rpt, @FatuBensouda reports that "from January to June 2018, over 1,300 ppl were killed" by farmer-herder violence in Adamawa, Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau & Taraba States "& about 300,000 persons were displaced."
During the past yr, according to @FatuBensuouda, @IntlCrimCourt received allegations of new crimes by the #BokoHaram Insurgency, violations by Nigerian Security Forces (NSF) & "with respect to communal violence in #Nigeria's North Central & NE geographical zones"
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The Nigerian government has shown unwillingness to use hindsight for the benefit of foresight to address the #BokoHaram/#ISWAP conflict. At every stop the insurgents seem more determined to kill than the government's determination to stop the killings.
The insurgents are no longer faceless as the previous Govt often said, their origins, locations and plans are known in the region. The civilian population of BH/ISWAP is more than the combatants. Therefore, Non military intervention is equally important as a military campaign.
Non military intervention does not mean dialogue with the insurgents, the prospects of a peace settlement in the #LakeChad is near impossible, at this stage. It is Nigerian govt that must dialogue with itself, to bring all its institutions to speed to complement the military.
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This is going to be a very long thread on #ISWAP, recent negotiations that went wrong and the controversial #BokoHaram ‘technical defeat’ bubble that was created to achieve political value rather than address the conflict indicators in the #LakeChad.
Apparently, Shekau has not recovered from the fallout of his extreme and tight fisted rule, which led to a split in 2016. Many may argue that the splinter group (ISWAP), is now as extreme as Shekau, but insiders disagree, that there is freedom of expression in ISWAP.
To many insiders, the execution of an overrated Mamman Nur and two aid workers would have been carried out by Shekau if he was faced with similar situations. It is also on record that Shekau has executed dozens of his associates and has been the largest beneficiary of ransom...
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#BokoHaram is adapting quickly, while #ISWAP is focused on re-branding. There's a sharp increase in recruits, especially by #ISWAP this year alone that outnumbered new recruits in 2017. Failure to stem recruitment is more grievous than the sporadic attacks, we are seeing today.
What is worrying abt the growing appeal for Jihadism in the #LakeChad is, the Govts are faced wth multiple crisis that limits their capacity to provide security. For many, the absence of governance and the promise of prosperity only in the hereafter is enough to be canon fodders.
The insurgents are still here. Most of the old guards are gone, but there's a new generation of ideologues, with a limited world view determined to fight on. They were born in violence, the only language they understand is violence. Only education can stop this tide. #LakeChad
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Growing up as a child between #Biu and #Maiduguri in the 80's and 90's left me with vivid memories. There were clear memories of affinity, of love, of trust, of sharing and good neighbourliness. #Maiduguri, to me, is the only place I want to retire to.

Today, the epitaph - home of peace, mock the state, its citizenry and govt. A crisis we all saw coming and I, in particular, wrote articles and reports in the New Sentinel and the Daily Trust, alerting the state of an impending threat to law and order, long before it occurred.
The official lines, then, was, the crisis "would fizzle out soon." Today, officials are pushing the same narrative. This is the wish of every well meaning citizen, but wishes are not horses. The evidence in Borno, especially rural areas, contrast sharply with official lines.
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There r multiple conflicts either in advanced stages or simmering across the #LakeChad & Bakasi regions in West & Central African regional belts. These include the #BokoHaram, #Herdsmen attacks, the unfolding separatist war in Cameroon and several other pockets of instability
The multiple conflicts should concern us all. The region cannot afford another war in addition to the lingering conflict over #climatechange and #BokoHaram. The consequences of escalating conflicts in these territories are dire. The regions are on the verge of an implosion.
There is also a growing interest of IS in escalating conflicts in the #Sahel and #LakeChad regions. Either out of ignorance or poor grasp of strategic regional issues, the various govts in the regions are steadily playing to bring to pass the expectations of these warmongers.
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1/ Politics and governance took centre stage this week, with the FG under fire for a slow response to floods in Benue,
2/ and Amnesty International serving a reminder, where none was needed, of the catastrophic human toll of Boko Haram’s insurgency.
3/ Finally on the reminder trail, Nigeria’s states have always had a thing for debt, and Nnamdi Kanu and IPOB are Nigerian after all.
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