Thread by @Usherwood

If #GE19 is coming, then it's coming sooner rather than later

1/

Notwithstanding summer recess, when move to GE can't happen (easily), it feels there's growing pressure to push the necessary button ASAP in September

2/

From opposition side, successful trial of #RemainAlliance model (even though huge problems of scaleability) and ability to overcome CON/BXP challenge will embolden parties

3/

Add to that the growing fear that gvt is serious about no-deal - and thus growing ease of convincing CON rebels to defect in VONC.

Also, fear of getting a no-deal in middle of #GE19 campaign period pushes to early VONC

4/

On gvt side, the 'Boris bounce' isn't as great as it could have been and looks soft, so incentive to press hard on timetable, esp. with LAB all over the place (and so unlikely to for any electoral pacts)

5/

An early #GE19 would also enable gvt to pass a more +ve vote on no-deal ahead of 31 Oct and would strengthened its hand (in its mind) in the period immediately after, when sifting through the wreckage of the WA

6/

For gvt, going for #GE19 would also forestall being pushed into it by VONC or being hostage to individual MPs' interests (recall there's still plenty of legislation to go through ahead of no-deal)

7/

Ultimately comes down to whether you want an election or not (and good reasons not to).

It's not essential to either side's plans, but if you're going for it, then it makes sense to go ASAP in Sept.

/end