Thread by @Oliver_Geden

The EU debate on a net-zero GHG emissions target and its (so far neglected) consequences for Member States. My new SWP policy brief, together with @FelixSchenuit
bit.ly/SWP19C33
#EU2050 #CarbonNeutralEU

@FelixSchenuit Currently, EU #netzero debate focuses on target year 2050. It is far from clear that this will be the final negotiation outcome. According to @EU_Commission, a later net zero year would still be within the 'Paris compatible' range
bit.ly/SWP19C33
#EU2050 #CarbonNeutralEU

@FelixSchenuit @EU_Commission Many activists (e.g. @FridayForFuture or @CANEurope) argue that EU has to reach #netzero by 2035/40, but it's not that "science says so"
@theCCCuk net zero report has whole chapter on how national GHG targets relate to global IPCC pathways
theccc.org.uk/publication/ne…
#CarbonNeutralEU

@FelixSchenuit @EU_Commission @FridayForFuture @CANEurope @theCCCuk Since all EU Member States signed #netzero under Paris Agreement there'll eventually be agreement, whatever the target year is. Depending on kind of package deal Poland & other veto players want, decision could be delayed into early 2020
bit.ly/SWP19C33
#ClimateNeutralEU

@FelixSchenuit @EU_Commission @FridayForFuture @CANEurope @theCCCuk Two questions will be at heart of this deal:
What degree of differentiation betw Member States is still justifiable?
How do attractive long-term goals relate to lack of willingness to implement corresponding measures in short/medium term?
bit.ly/SWP19C33
#ClimateNeutralEU

@FelixSchenuit @EU_Commission @FridayForFuture @CANEurope @theCCCuk On differentiation: MS from Central/Eastern Europe might demand to remain above zero (initially), whereas climate progressive MS would need to do so much carbon removal that they go net negative early. Ireland might look for special deal b/c of agriculture
bit.ly/SWP19C33

@FelixSchenuit @EU_Commission @FridayForFuture @CANEurope @theCCCuk On short to medium term: #netzero 2050 only credible with strengthened #EU2030 target. Higher ambition level also expected for new EU NDC, complicated by likely post-#Brexit withdrawal of UK from EU NDC, weakening the latter to ~37%
bit.ly/SWP19C33
#ClimateNeutralEU

@FelixSchenuit @EU_Commission @FridayForFuture @CANEurope @theCCCuk Finally, core issue for MS will not be strengthened ETS reduction factors but higher national ESR targets for transport/buildings/agriculture, which many MS are projected to miss and where policies easily lead to voter dissatisfaction
bit.ly/SWP19C33
#ClimateNeutralEU

@FelixSchenuit @EU_Commission @FridayForFuture @CANEurope @theCCCuk One more thing: often heard argument that MS like Germany will have to pay billions of Euros for missing national ESR targets in late 2020s is likely premature b/c there might not be enough sellers of surpluses to meet demand, hence no market price
bit.ly/SWP19C33