There was quite some critique my latest #BrexitDiagram in that it does not feature option that Vote of No Confidence (VONC) fails, no alternative government can be formed, and Johnson just runs down the clock...
... meaning No Deal happens by default before a GE happens
This, I think, is because we have been thinking about these problems in procedural and legal terms, not in political terms.
If the schedule were as follows:
- VONC passes on Tue 3 Sept
- 14 days expire Tue 17 Sept
- 🇬🇧 crashes out of 🇪🇺 31 Oct
- GE on 31 Oct or 7 Nov
how would it play out?
Something like this I reckon
Even Johnson would not survive that.
Even in 🇬🇧's weird political times that would be bonkers.
Even the tabloids wouldn't stomach that.
Not let the Commons pass a law to extend, and let UK crash out during an election?
When the UK Govt's own Yellowhammer plan predicts chaos?
So all of these worries that a VONC should not be attempted until an alternative is clear are a *bluff*
Even *if* no alternative is available, and a General Election would happen ASAP, there is no way MPs - even Tory ones! - would allow a crash out in the mid-campaign
Remember that blame shifting is the name of the game here, but were Johnson to just run down the clock to No Deal there is no way the blame would not stick to him - he could not shift that blame away
Also remember that while the Brexit Party is snapping at the Tories on one side, so the Lib Dems are in second spot in a slew of Tory constituencies on the other. Those seats are as good as lost if No Deal happened during an election campaign
I hence see it as *politically* impossible that the UK slips to No Deal *after* a General Election has been called or that one takes place is already inevitable
/ends
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