Thread by @jonworth

A few weeks ago it looked like VONC was the chosen route after the summer recess...

... now it's a legislative route instead.

This has meant major restructuring of the #BrexitDiagram - and even by my standards this is an ugly one - Series 3 V11.

This one sees increasing chances of both a General Election (now at 63%) and No Deal (now at 20%)

It assumes legislative efforts to stop No Deal are more likely to work than not (.6 to .4), and if there is a VONC in October it is also .6 to .4 likely to pass

There is a new section on prorogation of Parliament, and if this could be stopped - this is very sketchy until more is known about the @JolyonMaugham case (thanks @ProfKAArmstrong and @StevePeers for explanations here)

Also numerous leaks and documents seem to indicate that the Government is planning for a General Election *anyway*, so the odds Johnson tries to call this anyway have increased in the earlier parts of the diagram

As there has been no evidence whatsoever that the UK has viable alternatives to the Backstop that might mean a new Brexit Deal is possible there is no route to that on the diagram. If that were to change it will be added in a later version

Also thanks @usherwood and @astroehlein for the sarcastic diagrams, but I hope there is still use for a complete new, detailed one!

As ever, .png .pdf .ods and .xml of all versions on my blog here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…