Let us look at the scenarios.
I have no insights what is more likely, as seems to be the case for UK legal twitter.
Outcome could vary between #prorogation not being justiciable all the way to the current prorogation being unlawful plus obligations on the gov. /2
If gov prevails and #prorogation is not justiciable:
- Negotiations continue as they are
- Gov gains the option to prorogue again in October in an attempt to circumvent Benn Act
- Raises probability of no deal, but no effect on EU negotiation strategy
/3
If #prorogation is justiciable, but the current one lawful:
- Parliaments returns as planned on Oct14
- Negotiations continue as planned, with small window betw Oct2 (Tory Conf) and Oct14 to fully concentrate on UK-EU talks rather than UK internal political turmoil
/4
If #prorogation is justiciable and the current one not lawful:
- PM embarrassed but unlikely to resign
- Parliament returns quickly, more political chaos in UK
- From EU27 pov, this further limits the very small negotiation period betw Tory conf and #EUCO on 17/18 Oct
/5
In sum – from EU27 point of view direct effect of Supreme Court ruling likely to be limited, but if there is a full-on government defeat, the task of finding a common landing zone for an October #Brexit deal will become even harder. /ends
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