Since this year, the share of Chinese exports in global trade
has remained stable. While re-export trade and substitution effect are reasons behind
this, the influence of exchange rate should not be ignored either, said CF40 member Gao Shanwen, cf40.org.cn/uploads/newsle… 1/6
The depreciation of RMB exchange rate caused by trade war has largely spread the impact of trade war on
Chinese exports toother economies around the world, making China's share of global trade stable.2/6
It also shows to a certain extent that in the context of economic globalization, the
effectiveness of bilateral-based tariff and trade agreements often tends to be limited.3/6
The most import antimpact of trade war may be to increase future uncertainty, and signs of industrial chain shift have already appeared. 4/6
The trade war may impact the real economy in follow ways:
the outbreak of China-US trade war between the two major economies causes pessimistic expectation on global economy, contraction in economic activity,
weakness in external demand and thus shock to Chinese exports.5/6
Uncertainty brought
by #tradewar discourages investment activities in industries with high dependence on
foreign trade, and signs of industrial chain shift have already appeared.6/6
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