Thread by @areacode416

First look at TREB's December 2019 and full year market stats, for all you late night #torontorealestate fans. Dec was a continuation of what we've been seen from Q2 through Q4.
- big sales increases over 2018
- lower listings inventory
- above leading to ⬆️price pressure /1

-Every month this year (except Sept which was tied), 905 had a larger % sales increase than 416. But coming from much bigger lows in 2018.
-905 had bigger drop in new listings (or lower increase) in all 12 months
- Yet 416 had larger price % increase than 905, 9 months to 3. /2

Here's a representation of that sales increase being larger for 905 (orange) than 416 (blue) in all months but one (tied). Note how slow Q1 was (negative for 416, 0-5% growth for 905), then 905 took off in Q2 and stayed there. /3

Here's the numbers that chart was based on. 905 averaged 20% ⬆️ in sales in last 9 months. /4

Here are the full year numbers. I've been calling 88,000 for 4 months, so pretty close (175 sales off, or 0.1%). Note what I was saying still applies in that larger sales growth in 905 and less supply of listings, yet 416 had larger price increase: 5.6% vs 3.3% /5

The 78,015 sales last year were the lowest since 2008. TREB notes this year's 87,825 were "in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade." /6

Switching to prices, average annual price growth accelerated in the last half of the year. Note every single month is positive in both regions. /7

Again, the underlying numbers for my chart. I don't put too much stock in Dec (or Jan) as the volumes are the lowest of the year so subject to bigger swings. But you can see a slow start that picked up steam in both regions. /8

Back to average price, for the full year here's the gain for each area:
416: $47.1K
905: $24.7K
Total: $31.5K
/9

For those obsessed with comparing to the 2017 peak (and there seem to be many), here's how we look. 416 was already up last year, and is now $49K and 6% higher than the 2017 average price. 905 is still $34K or 4% below the 2017 average price. /10

Home Price Index (HPI) has also picked up steam. Here are the December numbers compared to last year. Halton and Peel are the overall (composite) stars, while...
⭐️Biggest gainer: Peel condo apartments
🐶Smallest gainer: York Region detached (but at least it's up!) /11

Looking by housing type for the full year, it's interesting that the highest gainer in sales volume (detached) had the lowest gain in avg price, while the lowest gainer in volume (condo apt) had the highest gain in price. /12

It makes more sense if you look at months of inventory, where (at least in the 416) condos have been below freeholds all year long (33 months in a row, in fact). The extremely low MOI number is driven by extremely low inventory - at historical lows currently. /13

Low MOI indicates a sellers' market, so unless the condo supply increases back towards historical norms, I'm afraid we're going to see this continued ⬆️ price pressure in the near future. /14

Anyway, that's my post-midnight first take on things (that's when the press release comes out). As always I'll have a deeper look in the next few days, where you'll see updates to these last couple of charts, plus some others. Stay tuned... /15