First look at TREB's December 2019 and full year market stats, for all you late night #torontorealestate fans. Dec was a continuation of what we've been seen from Q2 through Q4.
- big sales increases over 2018
- lower listings inventory
- above leading to ⬆️price pressure /1
-Every month this year (except Sept which was tied), 905 had a larger % sales increase than 416. But coming from much bigger lows in 2018.
-905 had bigger drop in new listings (or lower increase) in all 12 months
- Yet 416 had larger price % increase than 905, 9 months to 3. /2
Here's a representation of that sales increase being larger for 905 (orange) than 416 (blue) in all months but one (tied). Note how slow Q1 was (negative for 416, 0-5% growth for 905), then 905 took off in Q2 and stayed there. /3
Here's the numbers that chart was based on. 905 averaged 20% ⬆️ in sales in last 9 months. /4
Here are the full year numbers. I've been calling 88,000 for 4 months, so pretty close (175 sales off, or 0.1%). Note what I was saying still applies in that larger sales growth in 905 and less supply of listings, yet 416 had larger price increase: 5.6% vs 3.3% /5
The 78,015 sales last year were the lowest since 2008. TREB notes this year's 87,825 were "in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade." /6
Switching to prices, average annual price growth accelerated in the last half of the year. Note every single month is positive in both regions. /7
Again, the underlying numbers for my chart. I don't put too much stock in Dec (or Jan) as the volumes are the lowest of the year so subject to bigger swings. But you can see a slow start that picked up steam in both regions. /8
Back to average price, for the full year here's the gain for each area:
416: $47.1K
905: $24.7K
Total: $31.5K
/9
For those obsessed with comparing to the 2017 peak (and there seem to be many), here's how we look. 416 was already up last year, and is now $49K and 6% higher than the 2017 average price. 905 is still $34K or 4% below the 2017 average price. /10
Home Price Index (HPI) has also picked up steam. Here are the December numbers compared to last year. Halton and Peel are the overall (composite) stars, while...
⭐️Biggest gainer: Peel condo apartments
🐶Smallest gainer: York Region detached (but at least it's up!) /11
Looking by housing type for the full year, it's interesting that the highest gainer in sales volume (detached) had the lowest gain in avg price, while the lowest gainer in volume (condo apt) had the highest gain in price. /12
It makes more sense if you look at months of inventory, where (at least in the 416) condos have been below freeholds all year long (33 months in a row, in fact). The extremely low MOI number is driven by extremely low inventory - at historical lows currently. /13
Low MOI indicates a sellers' market, so unless the condo supply increases back towards historical norms, I'm afraid we're going to see this continued ⬆️ price pressure in the near future. /14
Anyway, that's my post-midnight first take on things (that's when the press release comes out). As always I'll have a deeper look in the next few days, where you'll see updates to these last couple of charts, plus some others. Stay tuned... /15
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Crazy shifts this week as the fall market has officially kicked off. 🍂
Let's start with Freeholds. Note that weekly bump. Higher than any fall in the last 7 (but for one week of 3,040 in 2018) and it's only first week of fall season. 🧵/1
The week-over-week (w/w) change was ⬆️428 listings for Freeholds (houses). Below's the equivalent week in the last 7 years. Usually the weeks leading up to and including Labour Day ⬇️w/w and then things start to grow.
2018 +324
2019 +258
2020 +320
2021 +248
2022 +135
2023 +213
2024 +428
/2
Here's a different look. Number of Freehold listings 0-7 DOM:
9/3: 314 (was 298 week before)
9/10: 962
Tripled! Now, a bunch of those are going to be re-listings ("Hey let's terminated and put it back fresh after Labour Day"), but a bunch are brand new too. /3
Here's a rental eviction story a friend of mine is letting me share, from the N12 notice (family member) to the recently concluded LTB hearing. So grab a ☕️, sit back 🪑, and read this 🧵 to see the outcome. /1
July 2020 - "I texted him at 9:30am asking about cockroaches I had seen in the apartment in the last few weeks.. he replied a few hours later asking me if the type and let me know his mom would be moving in.. all in the same message with the 🙏at the end. Next day sent N12." /2
He'd lived there 9 YEARS.
"I had a feeling it was bullshit but really what could I do with no proof.. I was tempted to stay and wait for it to get tied up in the LTB, some part of me believed it was possible he was being truthful."
Since CBC Marketplace likes investigating, I thought I'd do my own investigation on the house in the Real Estate "exposé" that aired last night, which centered around this house in Vaughan. Here's a bit more info for you in this 🧵/1
The owner was complaining about how they listed on the MLS offering to pay 1% commission to the "co-operating brokerage" (buyer's agent), which is short of the more common 2.5% commission offered in the GTA market. She claimed that agents were "steering" their clients away. /2
The CBC investigation with the large sample size of 3 agents, found 2 of them appearing to discourage their buyers (don't know if they were actually clients because they didn't mention if they'd actually signed Buyer Representation Agreements, which is no small matter). /3
So CBC is running a show tonight (which I'm PRVing). Here's the article previewing it. I got emails this afternoon from TRREB and OREA about it this aft, so it might be getting some play.
Here's the Sept 2nd RECO bulletin referred to by TRREB above, and in the article where it said RECO "issued a notic ice about steering to the over 93,000 real estate agents, brokers and brokerages under its purview." /3
TRREB has released its September #torontorealestate numbers. They like to accentuate the stats that would indicate everything is awesome, but let me point out 5⃣ STATS SHOWING MARKET COOLING ❄️ /1
First let me say it's not a COLD market yet by any means. But problem is everyone just likes to look at YoY change. When you think about it, 12 months is a somewhat arbitrary period to compare to. So September sales are way ⬆️(42%) and average prices are also ⬆️ (14%) /2
1⃣ AVERAGE YoY PRICE GROWTH IS SLOWING.
In July it was +16.9%
In August it was +20.1%
In September that slowed right down to +14.0%
Note a good chunk of the price growth is due to mix (less condo apts, more detached). /3
Some weekly #torontorealestate sales numbers in this thread. Firstly, week over week pattern this year continued to follow same as last year (only couple of deviations on here, main one being Labour Day one week later this year). /1
The total sales in the 416 in the past 4 weeks cumulative have been just 1% below 2019, with this week being flat. /2
But "tale of two cities" continues, with freehold (lowrise houses) selling stronger than last year and condos (apts and townhouses combined) selling weaker of late (and didn't show the huge "pent-up demand" that houses did. /3