Thread by @PJverhagen

Thread: #NevadaCaucus results🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Here are my main takeaways:

1. Bernie broadens coalition
2. Biden hangs on (barely)
3. Establishment fragmented
4. Bernie is the presumptive nominee

As always we will be using entrance/exit polls to make our analysis. Lets get into it! 1/12

1. #Bernie broadens coalition

This was a fantastic night for Bernie! Make no mistake, this is as close to his perfect scenario as possible.

Not only did Bernie win over 45% of the vote (yes only 50% is counted) but it's especially the breakdown of that number that has 2/12

the really good news for him. Bernie won 51% of Latinos, won the majority of white voters, he won 27% of black voters (down only 12 from Biden). He won very liberal voters with 49%, he won somewhat liberal voters by 29% he tied (TIED!) for moderate or somewhat conservative 3/12

voters with Biden!

He won 54% of issues voters and he won 23% of voters who prioritize Donald Trump, more than Biden. And he blew everyone out of the water with independents, winning 50% of them.

Its difficult to overstate the positive news this is for Bernie. He is not 4/12

only capturing minority groups that were his achilles heel last year, but managed to become the electable candidate as well, taking that label from Biden!

The only groups that he didnt outright win are black voters, older voters (65+), and voters opposed to single payer. 5/12

2. Biden hangs on (barely)

So Biden came in second, which was the bare minimum he needed to limp on to South Carolina. But even though he claimed a victory, this its mostly bad news for Biden.

His support among non-white voters has significantly eroded, his elect-ability 6/12

monopoly is no more. Hes even losing moderate and conservatives to Sanders out of all people. If Biden doesnt win huge, and I mean disgustingly big in South Carolina its over for him.

3. The establishment fragmented

There are plenty of people that dont want Bernie to be 7/12

the nominee, but they cant make up their mind who they want instead. Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar make up roughly 40% of the vote share. Now if this were a race where has Sanders 45%- Establishment 40%, that would be a reasonably close situation. But the way it is now 8/12

Biden has less than half the vote share of Sanders.

I dont think anyone will drop out before South Carolina, but even if by some miracle Klobuchar of Buttigieg wins there, they are dangerously low on cash for super Tuesday. They need a win soon or they will just bleed out. 9/12

4. Bernie is the presumptive nominee

Now this is an interesting point, because if any candidate wins the first three(ish) state, they would be seen as the nominee. Weirdly enough Sanders has not yet really been framed in that way, and has not really had bad coverage 10/12

Now that he has shown his strength in Nevada and won a truly decisive victory that might change. Expect the other candidates to start lobbing negative ads at Sanders and increased media scrutiny on his campaign and record.

Nonetheless, as it stands right now. The safest 11/12

bet to make would be a Sanders versus Trump general election.

Ill end my analysis there for now, obviously only 50% of the vote is in, I will update my analysis if anything changes and stay tuned for more election coverage!

Oh one last minor takeaway. It's now a day after the caucus and still only 60% of the vote has been counted. It's not Iowa bad but still doesn't seem like there is much of an appetite for the #NevadaCaucuses2024