Thread by @kunaaaaaal

#CoronaVirus

Been reading up on similar outbreaks in history. Here are some highlights from my research.

We have not seen anything like this in our history.

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"It is estimated that 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700–1400 million people contracted the illness — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_… (Swine Flu / H1N1)

Contd.

"However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%."

For context, Coronavirus has a fatality rate of 1-2%.

Next, let's take a look at the contagiousness oh H1N1 and compare it to #CoronaVirus.

"How far a virus will spread comes down to what’s known as the reproduction number, or R0. It relates to how many people each infected person will pass the illness on to."

weforum.org/agenda/2020/01…

"The pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus, which was also known as swine flu, had a R0 of between 1.2 to 1.6, according to the WHO, which made controlling its spread easier than viruses with higher transmissibility."

What's the R0 for #CoronaVirus?

"The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate."

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32007643

If the R0 is 1.5, this is what the spread looks like mathematically.

1 -> 1.5 -> 2.25 -> 3.38 -> 5.06

For R0 = 2.5

1 -> 2.5 -> 6.25 -> 15.63 -> 39

Do you see now why the #CoronaVirus is such a big deal?

Protect yourself. Protect your family.

We are in the early stages.