Thread by @medicalaxioms

People don’t understand the single greatest risk of #COVIDー19.

It is The Pinch.

Come along with me while I explain.

#COVID19US #CoronavirusUSA #coronavirus #SARSCoV2 #COVID19seattle #Coviditalia #covid4MDs #thepinch

This will potentially affect you, your kids, you parents. They don’t even have to get sick. It all has to do with TOO MANY PATIENTS TOO SICK AT ONE TIME.

Here’s what we know. One person in a community gets sick and they infect others. Most people don’t get too sick and they get better.

They are not “safe” though. Read to the end.

A smaller percentage of people do get hospital sick. They show up and need to be admitted. Beds are filled. Still business as usual.

A small percentage of them get sicker and need the ICU, a ventilator to breathe. We still have capacity. Until...

For a short time—maybe even just a few weeks—too many people get sick.

Too many people come to the ER.

Of the people in the hospital, too many get sicker. We will need one more ventilator than we have.

Then we need 10 more than we have.

A month or two later, everything will be fine. If you get in a car crash and need a surgery for a broken bone, you will get it.

If your kid has appendicitis, they will schedule the operation and everything will be fine.

Not in The Pinch. In The Pinch, it’s not like you live in the USA any more. It’s not like you live in the modern world at all.

In The Pinch, simple, basic medical personnel and technology that has been available for 50 years won’t be available. You’ll be outside. Waiting in line. The supply closet will be empty. The ventilator machine will already be in use.

A routine problem will not be routine.

It will become untreatable.

There are things the USA should probably be doing to slow down the rate of spread of #codiv19. Nothing new or creative.

Just all the stuff they are already doing in Northern Italy #Lombardia and China, South Korea, etc.

We should be doing all the things those doctors wish their countries had done weeks ago.

Once you are in The Pinch, there is nothing you can do. It’s too late. You can’t build a hospital bed in a day. We can’t make ventilator inside the building.

It’s not “the media.” It’s not fear mongering. It’s not a hoax. The Pinch is real and people are dying in it all over the world this morning.

There are things you can do. The most important thing is not to get sick when everybody else gets sick. I’m not going to tell you how here. That is your responsibility to go figure out.

In case you aren’t familiar with the use of the word “pinch” outside of salt for cooking or annoying your 3rd grade classmate...