This is my semi-livetweet thread of the March 10 primary contests. #GoJoeGo #WeKnowJoe #BlueTsunami
First off, Michigan exit polls already show Biden crushing it, so it might be a really early night, TBH 😉
Polls close in a few minutes in MS, MO, ND, and most of MI. Let's see how many of those states are called by the news networks immediately at 8:00 pm.
The Daily Kos site does not appear to be running a liveblog tonight. That tells me they probably expect this will be a very good night for Biden.
Minor correction: they're beginning coverage at 8:00 pm. Still, same implication. If they were excited about it, it'd already be running.
MISSISSIPPI CALLED FOR BIDEN. (not a surprise)
Missouri too early, "Biden leads".
North Dakota too early, no further implication. That means ND is going to be closer than MO. None of these are any kind of surprise.
Sanders Vote Share in 2016-->2020
MS: 17%-->??
MO: 49%-->??
ND: 64%-->??
The fact "Biden leads" in MO but not ND kind of implies Sanders will be significantly lower than 64%, with a good chance to lose outright.
BIDEN got 75% of the black vote in Missouri. HE GOT 84% OF THE BLACK VOTE IN MISSISSIPPI.
Biden also winning noncollege whites in MO by 13 points.
...NBC doesn't want to call it this early, but f**k it, I will: BIDEN WINS MISSOURI.
BIDEN WINS SENIORS (65+) IN MISSISSIPPI WITH 86%, 77% IN MISSOURI.
THIS IS HOW YOU LANDSLIDE A GENERAL ELECTION, FOLKS. #BlueTsunami
NBC finally calls MO for Biden.
None of the newscasters seem nonplussed in the slightest about the results tonight. #WordOfTheDay
So @Redistrict called it before I could because I was busy stuffing a burrito in my face, but BIDEN WINS MICHIGAN. This is monumental because it was the state that revived Sanders' campaign in 2016. This time the polls weren't wrong, it was a decisive loss for him. #BlueTsunami
NBC finally called Michigan for Biden.
ANDREW YANG ENDORSES JOE BIDEN!!!!!! That definitely wins unexpected development of the night, hands down!
#ThankYouAndrewYang
MSNBC is so bored by the results tonight that they're about to run a full-length report on the Coronavirus 😏
So this is about where we are so far:
Sanders Vote Share in 2016-->2020
MS: 17%-->15%
MO: 49%-->34%
MI: 50%-->39%
ND: 64%-->TBD
WA: 73%-->TBD
ID: 78%-->TBD
Is it just me or is anyone else REALLY impressed Biden was able to end his speech exactly FIVE SECONDS before 11:00 pm?? 😆
Washington is looking very good for Biden in the exit polls...he's winning white college grads by 16 points, and white noncollege voters by 12. Together these groups represent 80% of the WA vote.
...you know what? The theme of tonight is consistent, BIDEN WINS WASHINGTON.
Toss up, my ass. Give it some time, Washington will pull through for Biden.
Biden's currently leading in Idaho, that's pretty cool...Sanders won it with 78% last time.
Check out this visual...Biden has won 3 and TOO EARLY to call in the other 3. That TOO EARLY distinction is important because the exit polls currently do not suggest they will be CLOSE, but that enough actual results haven’t come in yet to “declare” a winner (i.e. Biden in all 3)
Given Biden’s currently ahead by 10 pts in ID, evenly matched in WA, & trailing by 13 in ND, there’s a real chance Biden will come out of tonight with victories in every state except ND...he might battle to basically even in ND, which I’d count as close enough to a clean sweep 🤓
I got distracted and didn't notice they've moved Washington to TOO CLOSE to call. Not the development I'd hoped for, but Biden's chances are still pretty good.
It looks like Washington results have slowed to a crawl with only a few thousand votes separating Biden and Sanders. I presume that means it's pointless to hope for a resolution tonight, so I guess I'll assume Biden won and go to bed 😏
I'm watching NDakota with interest, though. Sanders started out up by 15 or so and it's closed to about 10 points now. It's worth noting he got 64% of the vote in 2016, but only seems to be pulling about 45% now. If Sanders wins the state, it's unlikely he'll even get a majority.
(and it's very plausible North Dakota could be the only state Sanders wins at all tonight) #GoJoe
OH WOW, SANDERS SLIPPED BELOW 15% THRESHOLD FOR DELEGATES IN MISSISSIPPI. BIDEN ABSOLUTELY CLEANED UP THERE TONIGHT!
A rather interesting set of developments from this primary season...we learned caucuses are a F**KING TERRIBLE electoral system, sure. But much more interesting is that early voting itself ALSO results in anti-democratic outcomes in our presidential primaries! #ElectionReform
Update as of about 1:00 a.m., Mar 11
Sanders Vote Share 2016-->2020
MS: 17%-->15%
MO: 49%-->35%
MI: 50%-->38%
ND: 64%-->45%
WA: 73%-->33%
ID: 78%-->42%
#DemocraticUnity #WeKnowJoe #BlueTsunami
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