Thread by @PJverhagen

Didnt watch the #DemDebate last night? Well as always I did, and let me fill you in on what happened.

Main take-aways:

1. This was a substantive debate
2. Main topic: Crisis management
3. Revolution vs results
4. race unchanged (Biden up)

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1. Substantive debate 1/17

This was by far the most interesting debate on content. There were only two candidates and no audience, plus the moderators didn't feel the need to interrupt.

Now lets start by saying that the 'normal' debates held are a really bad format for getting any real information 2/17

Normally its much more about creating small viral moments and playing to your audience. In fact, one of the main things that experts point to in terms of improving the debates is not having an audience present. See more in the link



On top of that 3/17

the setting of only Biden and Bernie meant they were actually talking to each other. All of this meant that there was considerable back and forth which was nice to see.

Overall I think the setting suited Biden more. He has a stutter, and having an audience there makes 4/17

it much more difficult to deal with that. He seemed more relax (more reminiscent of the Ryan v Biden debate 2012) and was more articulate.

For Sanders its a little different. For one he doesnt have his normal applause lines. More significantly though is that he has a very 5/17

clear message that he always repeats. Despite the fact that he had more time and space to expand on his plans he didnt really do that. Instead he renewed his attacks on wall street, big pharma, the banks etc. You know the gist.

2. Crisis management

The main topic tonight 6/17

was crisis management. Obviously #COVIDー19 but also the financial crash. Both of these played to Biden's favor here, because he dealt with the 2008 financial collapse as well as the h1n1 (swine flu) and the ebola outbreak. He's quite comfortable discussing those things 7/17

Bernie did something else, he plugged medicare for all and equated the current covid crisis with a larger healthcare crisis in America. Now he is right in saying that the US healthcare system is inefficient and in need of reform. However, with many institutions and 8/17

parts of the economy under threat its a difficult pitch to call for wholesale revolution of the system. Which leads us to my next point.

3. Results versus revolution

This is how the dichotomy was formulated. Biden framed a revolution as being unconstructive and a 9/ 17

distraction from needing to fix things right now. He stressed that urgent problems need fixing right now, and that now is not the time to restructure the power architecture of the US.

Bernie of course disagrees. He attacked Biden on various bills that he voted for and the 10/17

sometimes negative results that this had going forward. In particular the bailout votes, war in Iraq, and defense of marriage act.

I personally wonder if this is an effective attack. Biden wants to fix the system, Bernie wants to tear it up and start again. 11/17

In a time of crisis, would many Americans go for a political revolution when they are worried about just maintaining the daily operation of their lives?

4. The race is unchanged

Overall Biden had a good 12/17

night. He didnt make major gaffes, he got the headlines with his woman VP promise and he could showcase his crisis management portfolio. And even if none of this had been the case he would still be up enormously in the upcoming states that vote tomorrow.

Sanders didnt 13/17

do anything that was unexpected or game changing and he had to if his goal is to win the nomination. However, he has moved Biden left on several important issues, including tuition fees and bankruptcy bills (shout out Warren). Nonetheless, as it stands Biden will win 14/17

the states tomorrow, and likely the nomination.

This is especially true because Bernie demonstrated some questionable political tactics in the last quarter of the debate. He once again double down on his Fidel Castro comments.

Extremely poor strategy and here is why 15/17

1. The debate is broadcast on Univision (many hispanic voters)
2. The next state up is Florida which has the largest Cuban migrant population in the world and most of those fled the Castro regime
3. If he ends up losing the Hispanic vote in Florida because of this he 16/17

gives Biden a way to claim more viability with Hispanics (which have gone for Bernie)

Bernie swung (again) at a pitch he shouldnt have, and put himself at a disadvantage for no gain.

Tomorrow I will analyse the states that are voting: Florida, Ohio, AZ and IL, stay tuned!