Listening now to the COVID-19 Conversations from the National Academy of Medicine and the American Public Health Association. COVID19Conversations.org. Today's is on social distancing practices. Focusing on #science #ScienceMatters
CDC: Virus shedding in greatest at time of symptom onset. burden of illness from asymptomatic shedding is not known at this time. Transmission from airborne or surface deposited droplets. Not from fecal transmission.
CDC: Nonpharmaceutical interventions = social distancing. decrease personal interaction. Take Personal Responsibility. Avoid close contact with people who are sick, avoid touching your face, wash hands a lot.
Flu models show school closures very effective to decrease spread. GOOD NEWS: Rapid school closures happened in the COVID19 pandemic in US.
GOOD NEWS: General public is heading mass gathering and travel messages (from safegraph.com), based on cellphone data. Recent data that shows that Mass gatherings in densely populated areas (i.e. Korea, Mexico) gave rise to significant outbreaks
Slides will be avail after webinar at covid19conversations.org.
Gunnison, Colorado notably escaped the great Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 due to protective sequestration (remote mining town) theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…
23 cities during 1918 Spanish Flu had dual peaks, showing that when nonpharmecutical interventions (NPI) were activated deaths went down, and when lifted death rates increased. EARLy sustained/layered application of NPIs played critical role in mitigating consequences
NPIs only used when there is a great risk of people dying. NOTE school closures only work when you pull the trigger early. NPIs do not work well if not well-implemented, or too late or too short of a time.
Be Clear: Practice Social Distancing can be vague. What it really means is "stay 6 feet away, stay at home, get groceries once per week."
The US is a unified info ecosystem acting in a chaotic fashion right now. Each new social distancing order within the US adds confusion, anxiety, lessens effectiveness. when we do this with less intention, human rights violations may happen.
Restrictions without support makes the disease less visible to the privileged and pus more disease to the most marginalized.
IMPORTANT: Imagine a new story: based on solidarity and not fear - clear and early triggers that are unified with simple language and planned equitable support. And use the time while we are cycling through NPIs/social distancing to ramp up testing and tracing cases.
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