Thread by @Afghan_Policy

Thank you @JJSchroden
1/10: STATUS OF US-TALIBAN AGREEMENT AND IMPLICATONS FOR NON-FULFILLMENT #AFGPanel
I have in a previous thread dealt with the challenges of ascertaining whether the US-Taliban📜is one to which international law applies. Refer to👇🏽

2/10: Without belabouring the point, I have argued that as this is not an international agreement, no parties can resort to ICJ or other forums to ensure fulfillment.
Thus, if any issues emerge, the parties have to resolve them amongst themselves bilaterally or trilaterally.

3/10: I do not wish to undermine the importance of this Agreement because in any political accord, the most powerful incentive is counter-measures which is present here. In other words, if one party reneges, so will the other.

4/10: However, one clear issue that has merged in the weeks following this Agreement, has been the lack of a clear dispute settlement mechanism. We saw this immediately after the end of RiV period when US airpower scrambled to defend ANDSF positions against Taliban onslaughts.

5/10: We also see this currently with the failure of Afghan govt and the Taliban to expediently proceed with prisoner exchanges.
The Agreement was intentionally worded ambiguously to allow for a compromise. Yet it leaves too many questions unanswered and 2 much room to wiggle.

6/10: This ambiguity, coupled with the lack of dispute settlement mechanisms, means every time the #peaceprocess runs into an obstacle, all parties have to run back to the drawing board and restart the process. For a recent illustration of this, see 👇🏽
voanews.com/south-central-…

7/10: Equally importantly, this ambiguity of text and uncertainty of status of the Agreement, allows various sides to play spoiler and defeat the entire process.
Today we see the AFG govt dragging its feet on prisoners' release, tomorrow TB will drag the intra-AFG talks...

8/10: Or other parties and individuals trying to hijack the timeline of intra-AFG talks.
To overcome this outcome, it is crucial that all sides build a robust mechanism to resolve any such future obstacles & allow the process maximum chance of a successful outcome.

9/10: Yes, building such a mechanism will be difficult and require creative thinking, but I believe that all sides must be driven by the urgency that, should Trump get re-elected, the US will mostly likely be leaving according to the timetable. nbcnews.com/news/world/pom…

10/10: Unless Afghans work tirelessly, once US leaves, incentives for a peaceful settlement will evaporate, compromise will become harder, regional powers will enter the fray with new rigour, & the country will likely descend into another cycle of a bloody and unwinnable war. END