The annual SARI hospitalization incidence ranges from 325-617/ 100,000 population in South Africa. Do we know the incidence of #SARI for south Asian countries?
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
#COVID19
Assuming the least incidence of 325/100,000 for India: 4.22 crore new cases admitted each year. Although it can be higher and has a bimodal seasonal presentation, a simplistic assumption of the monthly burden will be 32 million. Do we have these many SARI cases reported?
With these estimates, nearly 50-270 per 100 k population might be getting admitted with SARI each month. If districts are not reporting even one SARI cases as of now, this is concerning. Among others, the proportion of #COVID19 positivity as of now should guide lockdown release.
Each district should start reporting SARI cases. Obsession with testing is masking the importance of surveillance: States & center can start reviewing SARI & ILI surveillance at each district/ subdistrict level. #Covid19 Testing in these should guide actions.
As of now, we do not know which districts haven't reported SARI? Which districts have covid19 + among SARI, not reported but SARI +ve for covid19?
Also, which districts have more than expected ILI cases? What % of ILI are tested positive for covid19, and in which districts?
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