Epidemic model for Sweden #FlatteningtheCurve, estimated from incidence of cases and deaths, assuming social-distancing measures introduced between March 9 and 20 (matching Google Mobility Report data). #Covid19Sverige #Covid19Sweden 1/7
The model estimates that because of the measures, Rt dropped from an initial 3.5 (2.4 - 6.5) to 1.34 (1.18 - 1.67). But the effective reproduction number (Re) is dropping further below 1, providing an explanation why their daily cases are hitting a maximum. 2/7
Provided that there is no change in social distancing behaviour, then this would be the projected death estimate. 3/7
Estimates of number of infectious people and recovered people. 4/7
An SEIR model (like we use) assumes that the epidemic affects the entire population in the same way ("homogeneous mixing"), but clearly that is not the case for Sweden (from Wikipedia). 5/7
Therefore a lower "effective" population size is co-estimated to model how infected people infect susceptible people. An Rt of ~ 1.34 would require about 25% people to be "immune" for Re to drop below 1, while the model estimates only about 10% having been infected until now. 6/7
Method described in doi.org/10.1101/2020.0… (but with some modifications as mentioned). 7/7
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