Day 66 - Covering #COVIDー19 in Iran
Picking up from yesterday
Small-print
[Current Outlook]
We are in the second wave in a few provinces while according to official data numbers keep declining.
Hard to really understand what is going on.
According to Kaveh Madani, a well-known mathematician and Game Theory scientist (now working on modelling environmental problems), official data painting a very positive picture.
On the other hand, Khuzestan health officials are talking of possibility of using force in enforcing social distancing after new #COVIDー19 cases rocketed in this province and hospitals overloaded.
While I have been reporting things in Qom (1.2M), the original epicentre, have been improving, according to officials this province is still in red due to number of
#COVIDー19 patients in hospital.
If you remember I reported a wave of fatality among the children and explained this could be a delayed effect of the disease which has not yet been understood.
There are now several reports from other countries including Britain that describes a condition similar to Kawazaki disease which is a form of vasculitis with the immune system potentially playing a role.
bbc.co.uk/news/health-52…
A new report sheds some light on impact on pregnant women with #COVIDー19 in Iran. 700 pregnant women with #COVIDー19 were identified 500 of whom needed hospitalisation. 20 newborn babies were born with COVID symptoms.
240 midwife contracting, 3 died.
isna.ir/news/990214099…
Another important development in Iran related to #COVIDー19 is mass layoff of medical staff (nurses, technicians) working in private hospitals.
Due to the outbreak, all elective procedures cancelled resulting in financial problems for private hospitals.
The report of a hospital in Gilan closing down a month ago and more layoff among nurses and staff across a number of hospitals worrying while the Health Ministry has advised hospitals and staff to "work it our between yourselves".
Economic impact of #COVIDー19 due to zero support from the government has been immense.
An economist has warned that an unrest as a result can start at any time and likely to be more destructive than November 2019 protests #IranProtests
And in such times and economic recession of -10% growth, Iranian stock market has risen 20% in a week.
Some suspect government is manipulating the market to make a big profit to cover some of its +50% budget deficit.
As I said, Health Ministry yesterday quickly mentioned a test of a sample of healthy people showed a 15% #COVIDー19 infection rate.
A similar percentage was reported from Afghanistan which is interesting. I heard also same from Germany and New York.
As I had reported, rise of #COVIDー19 in Khuzestan province has been alarming. Meanwhile an outbreak of Cholera has been also reported. [most likely from pollution of streams of water due to recent flooding?]
Starting from yesterday, wearing face mask in public transport (Metro, Bus, shuttle taxi) in Tehran has become mandatory while some report of up to 50% not complying.
This car is advertising selling 4 masks for 10K tomans (~¢70) [Minimum wage = 2M tomans]
The layoff of nurses which I mentioned today are reaching worrying levels which has made Iranian Council of Nursing to declare that illegal. Their solution: A hospital unable to pay staff for 2 months must be closed down (everyone gets laid off!)
As I reported about the #COVIDー19 in children, there was a report from Sanandaj, Kurdistan province (1.6M) where 3 fatalities reported in just that hospital.
Report suggests the main presentation was gastrointestinal symptoms later turned out to be COVID
#IMPORTANT we have now some information that can help us predict rough number of deaths and that is by comparing number of deaths in Behesht Zahra (Tehran's main cemetery) morgue with last year same time.
This information had been inaccessible since site was deactivated.
Previously Behesht Zahra's site reported burials live with all statistics publicly available. After #COVIDー19, this was removed.
But reporters have managed to gain access to these numbers and here it goes:
~13K deaths in 2 months of Esfand and ...
... and Farvardin compared to 8268 the year before. This suggests 4732 additional deaths this year. Considering number of deaths due to road accident which would rocket during Persian New Year holidays, this would suggest perhaps ~5500 additional deaths in Tehran...
... which would be due to #COVIDー19.
Now considering Behesht Zahra is the main cemetery for Tehran, Alborz and some of Qom (~16M) that is 1/5 of population.
Considering Tehran has not been as bad as some other areas such as Gilan, Mazandaran and Qom, we should ...
... multiply it with a factor of 4 to 7 [again all estimation] which gives us 22K to 38K.
SUMMARY #IMPORTANT:
Estimation of #COVIDー19 death in Iran so far as 22-38K.
This is in line with my estimates of a month ago of 18K.
To put into perspective 22-38K #COVIDー19 deaths, other numbers:
Official numbers [Today]: 6203
Iran Internationa [Today]l: 13193
MEK [Today]: 39K
My estimate [March 22]: 18K
MIT and Virginia Tech [March 28]: 15,485
This puts Iran above all other countries (per population).
Of course basing on 2 months is not very accurate but deaths before those months have been pretty small. I guess a factor 20% can be added on top for deaths prior to Esfand and after Farvardin.
When discussing mortality and comparing to other countries, it is important to take into account the age.
One difference of the current second wave (flatter) compared to the first wave is the fact that people now understand they should only visit hospitals if they are seriously ill.
Tweet from March 5th, that 40% of cases contracted it in hospitals.
Oops I broke the thread. So here they are:
Continues:
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.