1. Its Crop Progress Monday! Always a lot of focus at this time of year on corn planting progress. The question is what number will this afternoon's Crop Progress reveal vs. last week's number of 27% planted?
2. TH and I developed a simple method for projecting weekly corn planting progress in a #FDD last week. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/04/a-simp…
3. Basic idea is to break % planting progress into its two components: i) # suitable fields in the week, and ii) % planting progress per suitable field day. Then ask where we should focus our attention for making projections. Our answer---suitable field days.
4. We argue that it is very hard to forecast the rate of corn planting per suitable field day beyond the weekly pattern shown below. So we consider this a given when forecasting.
5. That only leaves forecasting suitable field days based on weather during the week. There is also a pattern of suitable field days increasing through April and May on average. Near record # suitable field days last week. Why total progress was historically high last week.
6. IHere is the data on suitable field days regressed on corn planting progress for this week (#18). Not a super high R2 but suggests this is best place to focus when forecasting weekly planting progress.
7. Data also suggest a very interesting pattern in rate of planting progress per suitable field day: i) ramp up phase in first two weeks of April, ii) prime period in second half April and first half May, iii) mop up period in last half of May. 2020 following pattern so far.
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