Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #FDD

Most recents (8)

1. Got a question on crop insurance coverage. Good to think about that more carefully. Fortunately, GS (as usual) has a great #FDD on exactly this for IL. Sure the data is out there for other states.…
2. Table from Gary's article shows crop insurance coverage for corn in IL for 2018. If I added up the numbers right, about 87% of corn acres had some kind of crop insurance coverage in 2018.
2. Need to subtract out the products that do not have prevent plant (PP). These are the five options furthest to the right as I understand it. These options total 4%. Which means that 83% of IL corn acres in 2018 had PP as an option.
Read 5 tweets
6. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?

#Hypocrites #DoubleStandards #Liars #Warlords #USRealTerrorists
1. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?
2. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?
Read 40 tweets
1. Recap. Around 31 million acres of corn will be unplanted as of June 2nd. This is what Mother Nature is going to allow. The next question is how many of the 31 million acres will be planted to corn, how many will go prevent plant (PP), and how many switched to soybeans?
2. I want to first say that getting to an answer to what will happen to the 31 million acres intended to be planted to corn is fraught with uncertainty. I will walk through some thoughts but it is a volatile highly uncertain situation.
3. My first point is that we already know that topsoil conditions will be basically a lake or extremely wet as of June 2 over a big chunk of the Corn Belt. This means that the wet areas are probably going to need no more rain and around a week to dry out after June 2.
Read 15 tweets
1. In case you missed on Friday, my new #FDD on SREs and ethanol demand destruction. To date, I could not find much if any drop based on ethanol blend rates.…
2. Summary point #1: Could be E10 ethanol demand destruction with SREs in the future if price of ethanol goes above price of gasoline.
3. Summary point #2: SREs have reduced the demand for E15 and E85 but hard to measure since it is so small. Further expansion of the demand for higher ethanol blends is not in the cards so long as SREs are granted (and not reallocated).
Read 4 tweets
1. I am not spinning or blowin' smoke. I think the lack of impact of SREs on ethanol demand is the best news that Corn Belt farmers have received in awhile. Here is the first blend rate measure I looked at. #FDD…
2. Here is another measure of ethanol blend rate. More volatile but same message.
3. This chart show why SREs have not damaged ethanol demand. I think breakeven ethanol/gasoline price ratio is 1 after considering tradeoff of energy penalty and octane benefit (wash). Who is going to stop blending ethanol 40% below the breakeven?
Read 11 tweets
1. Recommended Reading for the Day: For those outside ag and interested in the RFS and ethanol, read this. It will help you better understand why ethanol matters so much in the Midwest.
2. I also find it interesting that there is such a widespread appreciation out there in farm country about what small refinery exemptions are doing to effective RFS mandate levels.
3. Oh wait. I think I remember a #FDD article by somebody on exactly that topic a couple of months ago. Could be a connection. Just sayin.…
Read 3 tweets
1. Gather round. Today's lesson is on regional ag politics. Chart below compares price changes forecast for 2018/19 between May and August by WASDE and MPP trade assistance payment rates.
2. I fully admit that figuring out tariff damages is very difficult and requires disentangling weather, general economic factors from tariff impacts. Also payment rates should depend on size of lost exports to China.
3. Now. With all the caveats out of the way, one cannot help but be struck by the MPP payment rate vs. projected 2018/19 prices since May. Soybeans makes sense given price decline. But sorghum at 43 cents and corn at 1 cent?
Read 8 tweets
1. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. A very nice article from @toddneeleyDTN on the lead up to the release of the EPAs 2019 proposed rulemaking. Much to absorb about the process in this article:…
@toddneeleyDTN 2. Did some digging on my own this morning and found within the docket for 2019 rulemaking a version of the rulemaking dated June 21, 2018. The email it is attached to indicates this was the official working version of the proposal at that point.
@toddneeleyDTN 3. Here is the link to the June 21 version of the 2019 rulemaking file:///C:/Users/sirwin/Downloads/Email_from_Tia_Sutton_to_Chad_Whiteman_regarding_Updated_version_of_2019_RVO_NPRM.pdf
Read 11 tweets

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