1. It's now time to turn our attention to the flipside of US corn planting progress. That is, how much of the corn crop will be planted "late"? This is the key concept with regard to corn planting, not how much is "early."
2. Here is why I make that statement. This is drawn from a terrific #FDD article (as usual) by my crop science colleague here at UI, Emerson Nafziger. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/04/planti…
3. Notice for both corn and soybeans in Illinois two things: 1) the planting date/yield curve is very flat from early April through mid-May, and 2) the curve begins to curve down rapidly after mid-May. Early corn planting helps yield much less than late planting hurts yield.
4. We use this basic concept to construct a measure of late planting for the entire US corn crop. We use a cutoff date to determine "late" of May 30th from 1980 through 1985 and May 20th from 1986 onwards. Other dates could be considered but we find this works reasonably well.
5. On this measure, late planting at 50% in 2019 sticks out like a sore thumb. Highest of last 40 years. Compares to average of 17.7% planted late. Also notice that there does not appear to be a trend in this measure of lateness. What we want to see.
6. What reading for late corn planting are we going to see for 2020? If my forecast for this week is correct, it will be below average. 83% progress for this week would put us below 17% late by May 20th, which is this Wed. My guess is 12-15% late.
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