Thread by @AndrewPEllison

I expect Victoria Spartz and Christina Hale will win their #IN05 primaries in blowouts today. Spartz has run ads for months on local broadcast, highlighting endorsements from the Club for Growth, NRA, and Right to Life Indiana. Beth Henderson has had a few ads, but no one else.

Spartz portrayed herself as an outsider and hardliner Trump supporter; Henderson's ads tried to contrast her as an establishment conservative, even highlighting that she's "born in the USA" (Spartz was born in Soviet Ukraine and has a notable accent). I don't think it's worked.

Carl Brizzi has had a lot of negative ads dumped on him (highlighting his anti-Trump radio show comments), but has run no positive ads that I've seen. I have seen zero Kelly Mitchell ads, or ads from any other candidate. This has generally been a Spartz/Henderson race.

Spartz is the ideal Rep nominee for Dems to face in November. She is Mourdock-tier in terms of her right-wing rhetoric, voting record, and endorsements. This district is changing rapidly, and Spartz is a terrible fit for rapidly bluing northern Indy and Hamilton County suburbs.

By contrast, Christina Hale is the ideal Dem nominee for this race. She beat a Republican State Representative in a swingy north Indy seat in 2012 by 51 votes, survived 2014 51.5%-48.5% (a terrible year for Indiana Dems), and was our 2016 Lt. Gov nominee. Her profile is perfect.

Hale fits the socially progressive, fiscally moderate profile of the north Indy/Zionsville/Hamilton County suburbs, while Spartz is fully aimed at appealing to the cultural conservative voters in the northern rural and exurban areas. Madison County will be the key battleground.

The Republican primary has been bloody with a lot of attacks flying around. It will probably be difficult to unite all of the losers behind Spartz, further alienating suburban voters. Hale is finishing the primary with $500K COH; Spartz will mostly be fundraising from scratch.

Joe Donnelly won this district by 1.2% in 2018. While Dems have collapsed in northern rural, exurban, and mid-sized towns, Dems have seen explosive growth in north Indy, Carmel, Fishers, and Zionsville, maintaining equilibrium throughout IN-05. Map courtesy of @JMilesColeman .

The 2019 municipal elections saw Dems make big gains in south IN-05. While Hogsett won Indy Mayor with 72%, Dems picked up three Indy Council seats in IN-05. Dems picked up their first ever seats on the Carmel and Fishers city councils, and Dems flipped the Zionsville mayorship.

Dems also showed resilience in the north in 2019. Dems retained the Anderson and Marion mayorships 55-36 and 62-30 respectively. Dems also flipped Tipton mayor 60-40 in a massive shocker, and only lost Alexandria mayor 47-53. Dems are proving resilient throughout the district.

As we go into an election where Trump is proving deeply unpopular, Biden is poised to capitalize on a potential win here. Biden has the perfect profile for the south suburbs while also having legit blue collar appeal in Anderson and Marion. I think Biden can win IN-05.

Hale and Biden will have linked fates in this district, and I think both can win here assuming the wave continues to build. Hale has her work cut out for her, but a big cash advantage, a divided opposition and polarizing opponent, and demographic trends give her a serious chance.