Thread by @freddieoconnell

Tonight, #MetroCouncil is very likely to vote on an operating budget and supporting tax levy for fiscal year 2021 (Jul 1, 2020 - Jun 30, 2021).

We have three basic choices:

* Make dramatic cuts: @Stevegfg has introduced a budget proposal that pursues this approach, and even it requires a substantial property tax rate increase.

* Raise taxes significantly: @JCooper4Nash recommended a budget proposal that pursues this approach, and the Chair's substitute from Metro Council's Budget & Finance Committee is modeled on it.

* Think differently: I have a budget proposal intended to leverage to the fullest extent possible existing facilities (like the Municipal Liquidity Facility) as we wait for the information about #COVID19 to stabilize.

In considering none of these choices do we actually address Nashville's priorities meaningfully. None of these budgets will transform our public education system, create a 21st century transit system, or reinvent public safety. They can't. This is a crisis.

The best we can hope for this fiscal year is to do as little harm as possible to public services and offer as much relief as possible through existing public services, occasionally supplemented by additional funding such as federal CARES Act funding.

Ultimately, I think the weeks and months ahead are about an approach to governing. We have received a letter from the Comptroller—the self-described "money cop" for Tennessee—asserting that we must have a structurally balanced budget.

I was not surprised that @NashFinance literally stamped every page of my budget proposal, "Not Structurally Balanced." No one wants to entertain this approach.

But here are some things we know as we prepare to vote tonight:

* Per @NashFinance, Nashville sales tax collections are coming in above projections—likely tens of millions of dollars above FY20 forecasts.

* The Federal Reserve continues to expand eligibility criteria for the MLF. psh.com/federal-reserv…

* The State budget is very likely to include a $200m fund for cities and counties, of which Nashville is likely to get at least $5m. nashvillepost.com/politics/state…

* Congress continues to work on the bipartisan SMART Act, which would offer $500b to cities and states across the country. cassidy.senate.gov/newsroom/press…

The SMART Act is supported by @NatlGovsAssoc, @usmayors, @NACoTweets, and @leagueofcities, all of whom recognize that this is not the right time to ask for deep cuts or steep increases.

Neither the mayor's nor chair's budget have any way to accommodate better-than-forecast projections or unrestricted funds intended to shore up revenue shortfalls. There's no structural trigger to say "Well, we don't actually need to raise the property tax rate so high after all."

In a recent community conversation, the Comptroller suggested that "what is good for Nashville is good for Tennessee." But demanding a structurally balanced budget on July 1 delivers a shock that will decidedly not be good for Nashville.

And walking back a tax levy sometime before October in the event that any of the above scenarios plays out to Nashville's advantage won't build greater trust in Metro in an era during which it has steadily eroded.

Here's what I would rather see:

* The mayor's office works with @TNCOT as a partner—not in a way that sacrifices our sovereignty—to assess the fiscal and policy environment on a weekly basis, with an agreement that a structurally balanced budget can wait till late summer.

* Nashville's congressional delegation—including @SenAlexander, @MarshaBlackburn and @repjimcooper—sign on to the SMART Act and work to get it passed.

* In the event that we reach September and don't have better news, we use a property tax rate increase as a measure of last resort but with sales tax data re-forecast to sustain the mayor and Council's priorities for operating a mostly status quo Metro government.

If, tonight, the mayor's or chair's budget passes, and we pass the largest tax increase in Metro history, we need to be absolutely clear and transparent about how we will protect taxpayers in the event of revenues not accounted for in current projections.

The first important question: What will Metro do with any unrestricted funds we receive from the State of Tennessee?

Though I feel strongly about these principles, I'm reluctant to push colleagues to vote for a budget that our governance posture is so fiercely resisting.

Which leave us, realistically, with the mayor’s budget and chair’s budget. Between those, I think the chair’s budget is the better interpretation of what we’ve heard from the public despite my objections to the framework we’ve been forced to operating in.

As such, I have also proposed an amendment to the chair's budget that would seek to ensure that a budget passed by Council would not raise taxes by more than the mayor's recommended $1 levy. I probably won't support most other amendments.

Tonight will be difficult. It will be intense. And almost no one will be satisfied with the outcome. And I worry about the impact of getting back into a rhythm of 4-year stability by FY22. I think this year has scrambled how we discuss priorities and how we fund them.

Based on what I expect to happen tonight, we will need to begin immediately working to rebuild trust in Metro, which can only come through transparency and stronger protections as they become available.