Thread by @aliostad

Day 114 and 115 - #COVID19 in Iran

Picking up from two days ago

I get lots of encouraging messages - thank you all. Occasionally some accuse me of being a paid mercenary, spreading fear or having agendas - especially with my recent threads on the 2nd wave.

My only answer: don't shoot the messenger 🔫🛑. I only re-report official news (with links) or verified reports and have spared you much of my predictions. Feel free to ignore, block, etc. I have but to carry on - it has become my duty now.

ICYMI I had an analysis on the 2nd wave in Iran. TL;DR: after removing lockdown measures, it takes longer than a couple of weeks for the 2nd wave to be established. Remember the puzzle of lily growth in the pool.

[Current Outlook]

2nd wave has established in virtually all 31 provinces - including ones which had a tough 1st wave. Some are in dire situation (Khuzestan, Hormozgan), some are at manageable but severe level and others just show consistent rise of the daily cases.

Along with the established 2nd wave, casualty among medical staff and Iranian officials are rising too - something that had been slowed considerably until recently.

Reports of deaths among mid-ranking police forces, this one: Mehdi Mombeini in Ahvaz, Khuzestan.

MP to Kerman has now been hospitalised with #COVID19

Roohollah Fathi, Supreme Leader's rep to Bukan in West Azerbaijan has died of #COVID19.

Khalil Ahmadi, a (non-medical) staff of a hospital in Sanandaj, Kurdistan, has died of #COVID19.

Mehdi Rajabi, a young nurse in one of the key #COVID19 centres in Tehran (Imam Khomeini Hospital) has died of the disease.

Dr. Sabbaqian working in #COVID19 hotspot Ahvaz, Khuzestan, has died of the disease.

#IMPORTANT Shirin Safavi, a nurse in Tehran has died of #COVID19 (reported earlier). But it is reported that she contracted the virus, fully recovered, then her sister got it and she started nursing her thinking she was immune. She died (then her sister).

I have tried to verify the re-infection aspect and establish whether the first episode had been confirmed by testing... I was not successful to enquire this level of information but her colleagues stress this was due to re-infection.

More reports from Golestan province (1.9M) arriving that the disease is quickly becoming a serious threat. Just in two cities of this province there are 34 children hospitalised due to #COVID19.

In fact reports from Shooshtar (102K), Khuzestan (4.7M), suggests that there is a meaningful rise in the younger population. Whether this is due to a different strand or simply a sign of widespread outbreak is unclear.

While officials talk of a 20-fold rise in COVID cases in Khuzestan with 600-700 daily cases, Ahvaz (1.2) the capital has been declared Yellow, downgrading from Red. Will carry on monitoring the situation.

This downgrading of Ahvaz is in a situation where health officials are considering adding another two hospitals in addition to current 6 hospitals dedicated to #COVID19 patients.

Meanwhile in other parts of Khuzestan, Ganjavian Hospital in Dezful (265K) dedicated to COVID is now full. Also ICU in Shooshtar (102K) hospital is full and 70% of beds are dedicated to #COVID19.

While authorities warn that they could bring back the lockdown, they have done little. In Hormozgan (1.8K), one of the worst affected provinces during the 2nd wave, authorities said Thursdays closed in addition to Fridays. Most business/offices already are

Dr Zali, head of the COVID Taskforce in Tehran says observance of social distancing has reached its lowest levels [<10%] and the public are sick and tired of it [there are economic reasons for it too]

Buses and Metro in Tehran in the last couple of days:

More photos from Tehran Metro:

Disturbing interviews with the medical staff in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan:

- High mortality
- All wards and ICUs full
- The train of #COVID19 patients never stop
- Staff have to juggle the patients across wards to cope

OK will leave you with the this news: the price of illicit drugs such as meth has gone up considerably after COVID - potentially disrupting the supply chain.

Good night and stay safe.