There are many questions on the reasons of the escalation and who started the fire first on the #Armenian-#Azerbaijani border in #Tavush/#Tovuz regions yesterday. What is clear is that: 1/7
Both governments were ready for the escalation as the negotiations reached impasse since the last developments including the statements of Armenian PM in #Stepanakert (August 2019), inauguration of the leader of the self-proclaimed government of NK in #Shusha (May 2020),etc. 2/7
This is why the argument of distracting both societies from the unsuccessful struggle against the pandemic of #coronavirus has little ground: it was expected to start anyway. 3/7
Another important point is that while the escalation started on the Armenian-Azerbaijani international recognized border and not the Line of Contact with the neighboring occupied territories of Azerbaijan it looks more like a provocation from the Armenian side. 4/7
There is no logic for the Azerbaijani government to attack here as it might pose a threat on the involvement of Russia as the #CSTO backer of Armenian security. Instead attack in the direction of #LoC would have given more political and military dividends for official #Baku. 5/7
It also explains why the analogy with the Four-Day war of April 1916 is wrong. 6/7
Whatever this escalation will lead to, the reaction of the public shows that both Armenian and Azerbaijani societies are full of mistrust and skepticism about peaceful coexistence with each other. The road to peace is longer than ever before. 7/7
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