1/13 Now when the war is over and the details of the peace deal are announced (although some of them are still unclear), it’s time to think about several outcomes for the global/regional powers and one main lesson for Azerbaijan and Armenia: 2/13 This peace deal once again proved the status of the South Caucasus as Russia’s backyard for its role in achieving ceasefire and the newly established status of the peacekeeping force in NK. At least for the next 5 years Russia will retain its strong presence in the region.

Is compromise between #Azerbaijan and #Armenia possible? Very unlikely and the reason lies (partially, or mostly) in societies, not leaders. A (very) long thread: While Armenian side is blaming current Azerbaijani regime for refusing to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence, it fails to understand the Azerbaijani vision of the history of NK conflict and the significance of Karabakh to the Azerbaijani people. +

I would recommend everyone to read Mansfield and Snyder’s “Democratization and the danger of war” article (1995) on the role of democratizing (and not yet fully democratic) states in the onset of conflicts. These are the cases where democratic peace theory cannot be applied: 1/

https://twitter.com/vgratian/status/1310197320718450689

According to the authors, states with the regimes in transition (both democratizing or “autocratizing”) are more prone to lead their nations to wars that either fully democratic or fully authoritarian regimes. 2/

This is tragic to see a-180-degree change in the Arm-Az negotiations from the January 2019 promise of “preparing populations to peace” to the recent July escalations and today’s onset of what looks like a full-scale war. #KarabakhNow 1/4 Lots of provocations starting from Pashinyan’s Stepanakert speech of August 2019 to the resettlement of Lebanese Armenians to #Karabakh, a provocative idea of moving local parliament to #Shusha and many others ignited the Azerbaijani side for the recent months. 2/4

Here is a good documentary about national minorities of Azerbaijan (unfortunately now available with Az subtitles only) to give you some idea on how the diverse ethnic palette of the South Caucasus looks like: 1/ In this documentary you can listen to the languages and stories of Tats, Budugs, Sakhurs,Talyshs, Khynalygs/Ketishs, Russians, Hapitlis, Jews, Rutuls, Eliks, Kurds, Udis, Lezgins, Ingiloys, Armenians, Avars and Kryzs. 2/

Armenian and Azerbaijani musicians of Mashadi Jamil Amirov ensemble, 1909. From left to right: Shoshan (?) (gosha-naghara), Mashadi Mahammad Farzaliyev (singer khanende), Mashadi Jamil Amirov (tar), Levon Karakhanov (kamancha). 1/ Born in Shusha, Mashadi Jamil Amirov was a well-known composer and tarist of his time. Author of “Seyfal Mulk” opera, he is also the father of another great Az composer, Fikret Amirov. Karabakh indeed was the conservatoire of the South Caucasus and the cradle of Az culture. 2/

1/11 While doing my research on the role of intelligentsia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in the late 1980s I came across the story behind the collaboration of Armenian film director Sergei Parajanov and Azerbaijani composer Javanshir Guliyev in “Ashik Kerib” (1988). 2/11 It is definitely a must-watch for everyone interested in the culture of the South Caucasus, together with the other Caucasus-related works of Parajanov, “The Color of Pomegranates” (1968) and “The Legend of the Suram Fortress “ (1985).

There are many questions on the reasons of the escalation and who started the fire first on the #Armenian-#Azerbaijani border in #Tavush/#Tovuz regions yesterday. What is clear is that: 1/7 Both governments were ready for the escalation as the negotiations reached impasse since the last developments including the statements of Armenian PM in #Stepanakert (August 2019), inauguration of the leader of the self-proclaimed government of NK in #Shusha (May 2020),etc. 2/7