Thread by @ACLatAm

LIVE NOW—Argentina’s debt negotiation: Is a deal within sight? pscp.tv/w/cdyYKTFZTEVK…

“What led us to this debt negotiation is the lack of a comprehensive macroeconomic program that will put in place reforms that will promote sustainable, permanent, and consistent growth,” said @martinredrado, former president of @BancoCentral_AR. #ACArgentina

In negotiating the debt restructure before establishing a macroeconomic program, the Argentine government "put the cart before the horse," leading to a debt sustainability analysis that shifted due to #COVID19. -@martinredrado, former president of @BancoCentral_AR #ACArgentina

“There's been a fundamental difference between the government and the bondholder community,” said Lisa Schineller, Managing Director of Latin America Sovereign Ratings for @SPGlobalRatings. "We were set up for a difficult conversation, and #COVID19 exacerbated that." #ACArgentina

“I don't know if there is a country on earth that has managed the balance between the economic issues and the #COVID19 quarantine,” said @CarlosMelconian, former president of Banco de la Nación Argentina. #ACArgentina

"From the economic point of view, the response has been to provide a huge dose of monetary stimulus during the emergency, to minimize the effects of the pandemic," said @CarlosMelconian, former president of Banco de la Nación Argentina. #ACArgentina

"In Argentina, it is more challenging than in other countries because of the lack of genuine social finance," concluded @CarlosMelconian, former president of Banco de la Nación Argentina. #ACArgentina

"There is consensus that Argentina must reach a deal,” said @martinredrado, former president of @BancoCentral_AR, citing lessons learned from the 2001 default. "The question is when a deal will be reached." #ACArgentina

“Obviously you need to say that this is your last offer, looking at the debt with foreign creditors, local creditors and @IMFNews,” said @martinredrado, fmr president of @BancoCentral_AR. "I would move more on the legal situation rather than cents on the dollar." #ACArgentina

“It is better to settle on an agreement and improve it, rather than move into the fall without an agreement,” and though an agreement will not solve Argentina's macroeconomic concerns, it will provide much-needed certainty in the coming months. -@CarlosMelconian. #ACArgentina

“Irrespective of the deal, the economy is going to be hit hard this year, and we're expecting a sluggish recovery,” said Lisa Schineller of @SPGlobalRatings. "The specifics of the deal will open up space for a growth dynamic." #ACArgentina

"A more resilient, more prosperous economy will be able to support more debt, and it would become more possible to relax FX controls." -Lisa Schineller of @SPGlobalRatings #ACArgentina

“If you are in a situation where you are living just on cash, getting out of this situation will be more difficult and take more time" if the government and creditors fail to reach a deal soon, said @martinredrado, former president of @BancoCentral_AR. #ACArgentina

"To reach a deal is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for Argentina's economy to get back on track." -@martinredrado, former president of @BancoCentral_AR. #ACArgentina

"Sectors related to foreign trade, credit, tourism, and other sectors involved in the massive movement of people will be the most effected by #COVID19," said @CarlosMelconian. "We're forecasting that our GDP capital levels will return to where they were in 1999." #ACArgentina

"Argentina needs a macroeconomic program in place after the negotiation is over," said @martinredrado. "When you lose confidence, you need to establish a long-term program with short-term goals to rebuild investor confidence and reach a place of fiscal normality." #ACArgentina

"You also need a tax reform that tackles informality in Argentina and in Latin America," said @martinredrado. "You cannot have 40% of the country employed informally. We need comprehensive tax reform that lowers the tax rate and widens the tax base." #ACArgentina

“You need a consistent macro and micro approach that can build prosperity and buy-in across the population and across party lines,” said Lisa Schineller Managing Director, Latin America Sovereign Ratings for @SPGlobalRatings. "That is how you build a higher rating." #ACArgentina